Friday, April 29, 2011

Updated Trend Graph

Here are the trends updated with today's points.

Two things to note: first, the Liberals have stabilized around the mid-50s. The key number for them is their Ontario vote share, and most recent polls put them at around 28%, except for Ipsos' 21%.

Second, accounting for methodological change (that's the discontinuity on the graph), the Tories are at their lowest point of the campaign. They are still very close to a majority, however, so unless things change drastically in the next two days, there will be a lot of suspense on election night. Don't believe the media saying there's virtually no chance of a Tory majority.

5 comments:

Ian said...

That little bend in the orange NDP curve, where it flattens out, is right where Jack Layton said that gas prices might go up.

I say this as an NDPer. Put a link on that spot in the chart, to a clip of Homer Simpson going, "DOH!"

Election Watcher said...

Well, I don't think we're seeing the effects of that yet. The NDP kept gaining ground in most places, but happened to grab no new seats. (Actually one, but it was canceled by a loss due to a riding poll.)

Anonymous said...

You are crazy. There is no chance of a majority. You are pulling these numbers out of your ass, You are manipulating these results . The Conservatives will get no where near 150 seats. You fail to even mention voter turnout is predicted to be 35% higher then 2008. I can see why you have a blogspot and not a self hosted blog since you just post ridiculously wrong information.

VOTE JACK LAYTON NDP

Election Watcher said...

Note that advance voting was higher in 2008 than in 2006, but total turnout was actually lower. There is a trend toward early among people that vote anyway. I'm not so sure that turnout will be significantly higher than in 2008, and I'm willing to bet $10,000 (remember, I'm a graduate student) that it won't increase by 35%.

I have a blogspot because I'm cheap :) All 8 freely available projections based on averages show the Tories between 142 and 151.

Anonymous said...

Dear Sir/Madam,

I have the pleasure to brief you on our Data Visualization software
"Trend Compass".

TC is a new concept in viewing statistics and trends in an animated
way by displaying in one chart 5 axis (X, Y, Time, Bubble size &
Bubble color) instead of just the traditional X and Y axis. Discover
trends hidden in spreadsheets. It could be used in analysis,
research, presentation etc. In different business sectors, to name a
few we have Deutsche Bank, NBC Universal, RIM, Vanguard
Institutional Investor, Ipsos, Princeton University as our clients.

NBC presentation on TED using Trend Compass exported Videos. Now on
CNN Money / Fortune (Dec 21st,2010):
http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2010/12/21/from-laughing-to-judging-in-fifty-years-the-evolution-of-

televised-emotion/

The following link is for our new Geographical Trend Compass
(Earthquake in Japan - Mag vs Depth vs Time):
http://www.epicsyst.com/test/v2/japan-earthquake

Link on Ads Monitoring on TV Satellite Channels. Pick Duration (Ads
daily duration) vs Repeat (Ads repetition per day).
http://www.epicsyst.com/test/v2/tv-monitor/

Link showing drilling feature (Parent/Child) - Just double-click on any
bubble:
http://www.epicsyst.com/test/v2/drilling/

Link on UK Master Card vs Visa performance :
http://www.epicsyst.com/test/v2/mastercard_vs_visa/

Links on Funds:
http://www.epicsyst.com/test/v2/best_exchange_traded_funds/
http://www.epicsyst.com/test/v2/us_insurance_funds/
http://www.epicsyst.com/test/v2/aaim_fund_performance/

Link on other KPIs :
http://www.epicsyst.com/test/v2/hospital_performance/
http://www.epicsyst.com/test/v2/international_insurance/

Link on Chile's Earthquake (Feb 27th 2010):
http://www.epicsyst.com/test/v2/EarthQuakeinChile/

This a link on weather data :
http://www.epicsyst.com/test/v2/aims/

This is a bank link to compare Deposits, Withdrawals and numbers of
Customers for different branches over time ( all in 1 Chart) :
http://www.epicsyst.com/test/v2/bank-trx/

Misc Examples :
http://www.epicsyst.com/test/v2/airline/
http://www.epicsyst.com/test/v2/stockmarket1/
http://www.epicsyst.com/test/v2/football/
http://www.epicsyst.com/test/v2/swinefludaily/
http://www.epicsyst.com/test/v2/babyboomers/

This is a project we did with Princeton University on US unemployment :
http://www.epicsyst.com/main3.swf

A 3 minutes video presentation of above by Professor Alan Krueger
Bendheim Professor of Economics and Public Affairs at Princeton
University and currently Chief Economist at the US Treasury using
Trend Compass :
http://epicsyst.com/trendcompass/princeton.aspx?home=1

You can download a trial version. It has a feature to export
EXE,PPS,HTML and AVI files. The most impressive is the AVI since you
can record Audio/Video for the charts you create.

http://epicsyst.com/trendcompass/FreeVersion/TrendCompassv1.2_DotNet.zip

All the best.

ashrafwagdy
Trend Compass Team
Epic Systems
www.epicsyst.com