Friday, April 29, 2011

Updated Trend Graph

Here are the trends updated with today's points.

Two things to note: first, the Liberals have stabilized around the mid-50s. The key number for them is their Ontario vote share, and most recent polls put them at around 28%, except for Ipsos' 21%.

Second, accounting for methodological change (that's the discontinuity on the graph), the Tories are at their lowest point of the campaign. They are still very close to a majority, however, so unless things change drastically in the next two days, there will be a lot of suspense on election night. Don't believe the media saying there's virtually no chance of a Tory majority.


Ian said...

That little bend in the orange NDP curve, where it flattens out, is right where Jack Layton said that gas prices might go up.

I say this as an NDPer. Put a link on that spot in the chart, to a clip of Homer Simpson going, "DOH!"

Election Watcher said...

Well, I don't think we're seeing the effects of that yet. The NDP kept gaining ground in most places, but happened to grab no new seats. (Actually one, but it was canceled by a loss due to a riding poll.)

Anonymous said...

You are crazy. There is no chance of a majority. You are pulling these numbers out of your ass, You are manipulating these results . The Conservatives will get no where near 150 seats. You fail to even mention voter turnout is predicted to be 35% higher then 2008. I can see why you have a blogspot and not a self hosted blog since you just post ridiculously wrong information.


Election Watcher said...

Note that advance voting was higher in 2008 than in 2006, but total turnout was actually lower. There is a trend toward early among people that vote anyway. I'm not so sure that turnout will be significantly higher than in 2008, and I'm willing to bet $10,000 (remember, I'm a graduate student) that it won't increase by 35%.

I have a blogspot because I'm cheap :) All 8 freely available projections based on averages show the Tories between 142 and 151.

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