Thursday, April 21, 2011

Riding Polls: Good News for Grits in Newfoundland

ThreeHundredEight.com reports on the results of five riding polls: Sherbrooke, Gatineau, Avalon, St. John's East and St. John's South--Mount Pearl.

The two Québec polls yield little surprise. Sherbrooke is a safe seat for the Bloc, while the NDP now has a slight lead in Gatineau. Interestingly, the NDP rise in Gatineau is a bit less than its rise in contemporaneous province-wide polls, while the Bloc and Liberals did not fall in Gatineau, unlike elsewhere in Québec. This is consistent with an observation I made a few days ago, namely that because the Outaouais shares some characteristics with Ontario and because the NDP has not gained ground in Ontario, the NDP surge in the Outaouais is likely smaller than in the rest of Québec.

In Newfoundland, the three riding polls are extremely helpful: we knew from an Angus Reid poll in February that the effects of the 2008 ABC campaign had diminished, but because the Angus Reid poll had a small Newfoundland sample (300-400 respondents), we couldn't tell precisely by how much. These polls help us answer that question, and it now appears that the Tories' variation in Newfoundland are about 10% more favourable than in Atlantic Canada as a whole, while both the Grits' and Dippers' are 5% less favourable. The Conservative and Liberal numbers are smaller than suggested by the Angus Reid poll, which is what I had to go by until now.

As a result, extrapolating based on the provincial average now gives the Liberals a small lead in St. John's South--Mount Pearl instead of the NDP. This is consistent with the riding poll, so the seat reverts to the Grits in the projection.

For Avalon, extrapolating based on the provincial average gives the Tories an 8% lead, but the riding poll gives the Grits a 4% lead. Accordingly, this race is now still projected Conservative, but by a tiny margin.

The new aggregate projection is thus:

CON - 148
LIB - 76
BQ - 44
NDP - 39
IND - 1

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