Today's Nanos release gives the Conservatives their highest lead yet in this campaign's daily tracking. However, if one digs into the details, this is not necessarily a terrible poll for the Grits: the Ontario gap has narrowed by 4%, to 10.5%. In the Atlantic and in Québec, the Conservatives are up and the Liberals down, but yesterday's numbers for these regions were implausibly high for the Grits. The Tories' gain in Québec brings them to a strong 26.7%, but at this point, one would presume that this is just a statistical blip. There was little action out West.
The projection actually shifts a seat from the Tories to the Grits due to the Ontario numbers:
CON - 154
LIB - 69
BQ - 52
NDP - 33
The Tories' average national lead is 13.4%.
Moreover, Ipsos has released results from questions on a hypothetical coalition from a March 29-31 survey. Hopefully, the horse race numbers will follow soon. They are unlikely to give the Liberals any solace, since fully 46% of Canadians would take a Conservative majority over a Liberal-NDP coalition. One would assume that Tory support in this poll approaches this figure...