Saturday, April 2, 2011

Nanos: Tories' Lead Climbs to 11

Today's Nanos release gives the Conservatives their highest lead yet in this campaign's daily tracking. However, if one digs into the details, this is not necessarily a terrible poll for the Grits: the Ontario gap has narrowed by 4%, to 10.5%. In the Atlantic and in Québec, the Conservatives are up and the Liberals down, but yesterday's numbers for these regions were implausibly high for the Grits. The Tories' gain in Québec brings them to a strong 26.7%, but at this point, one would presume that this is just a statistical blip. There was little action out West.

The projection actually shifts a seat from the Tories to the Grits due to the Ontario numbers:

CON - 154
LIB - 69
BQ - 52
NDP - 33

The Tories' average national lead is 13.4%.

Moreover, Ipsos has released results from questions on a hypothetical coalition from a March 29-31 survey. Hopefully, the horse race numbers will follow soon. They are unlikely to give the Liberals any solace, since fully 46% of Canadians would take a Conservative majority over a Liberal-NDP coalition. One would assume that Tory support in this poll approaches this figure...

2 comments:

Earl said...

EW:

is there any chance you could give us a seat projection just on April 2, Nanos numbers, ie: the numbers from his latest overnight rolling poll.

TIA.

Earl

Election Watcher said...

Hi Earl,

Based on the 3/31-4/2 Nanos poll released on 4/3, my projection gives:

CON 148
LIB 85
BQ 43
NDP 31
IND 1

The Conservatives don't get a majority despite being at over 40% due to their weak lead in Ontario.

EW