Thursday, April 28, 2011

Nanos: Tories by 6.2

Here's today's Nanos release. Nationally, the NDP keeps progressing at the expense of both traditional parties. In Québec, Nanos concurs with the latest Forum poll, and puts the NDP in the lead by 17%. Duceppe and the Bloc could really be wiped out! The Tories lose several points in Atlantic Canada and Ontario, which, as we'll see in the projection, hurts their chances of a majority. They do gain in BC, however.

This poll again causes many changes in the projection. The NDP takes 5 more seats from the Bloc, and one from the Tories in NS. Furthermore, the Liberals regain two in Ontario. Thus, the Conservatives fall out of majority territory, and Layton catches up to Dion's 2008 performance:

CON - 153
NDP - 77
LIB - 56
BQ - 21
IND - 1

The average Conservative national lead is 10.3%.

Take a look at the Cyberpresse article (in French), where a Conservative operative concedes that the Tories could lose Pontiac and Beauport--Limoilou. The projection has the NDP ahead in Pontiac, and literally 0.1% behind in Beauport--Limoilou. The Tories think they could make up for those losses in Abitibi--Baie-James--Nunavik--Eeyou, Richmond--Arthabaska and Mount Royal. The projection indeed has them ahead of the incumbent Bloc in A-BJ-N-E, but the current projected winner is the NDP. Richmond--Arthabaska had a riding poll putting the Tories a whopping 26% behind the Bloc last week - so that poll needs to be very wrong. Finally, the Conservatives lost Mount Royal by 28% last time, with less than half the Liberal vote alone, so this would seem like a tall order.

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