Friday, April 29, 2011

Ipsos: Tories by 5, Grits at 18%; Eight Riding Polls

Ipsos Reid confirms (updated link) the 5% Tory lead over the NDP that many others have observed. The Liberals are at a historic low, but Ipsos has consistently shown the Grits lower and the Tories higher than other pollsters.

In Ontario, the NDP has vaulted into second place at 34%, just 6% behind the Conservatives. The Liberals languish at 21%. Although the NDP is close to the Conservatives in the popular vote, it would likely only win around 26 seats, leaving 69 for the Conservatives, and just 11 for the Liberals. The NDP needs to win the Ontario popular vote handsomely before making significant inroads.

The NDP leads in Atlantic Canada, 10% in front of the Tories and 19% ahead of the Grits, who would fall out of contention in the last region where they have a shot at the lead. The Tories polled at 55% in SK/MN, 23% ahead of the NDP, and at a whopping 74% in Alberta.

The Québec numbers are pretty run-of-the-mill: NDP at 42%, 16 in front of the Bloc, with the Grits and Tories well back around 15%. BC numbers have the Tories and Grits slightly stronger than the polling average, so the Dippers are just 3% ahead of the Liberals and 13% from the Conservatives.

For all these funny numbers, this poll only caused a one-seat change in the projection: the NDP takes an Ontarian seat from the Liberals. Based on this poll alone, however, I have the Tories winning a bare majority: 157 C, 108 N, 31 L, 12 B.

Next, ProjectDemocracy has released eight riding polls conducted by Oracle. Two of these are in the same ridings as CROP polled, and unfortunately, the results conflict. In Portneuf--Jacques-Cartier, while CROP showed a tight three-way race, this one has André Arthur leading the NDP candidate by 6%, both well ahead of the Bloc. In Charlesbourgh--Haute-Saint-Charles, where CROP showed an NDP-Tory race, Oracle says it's an NDP-Bloc race.

Two more of these polls are in Québec: Lévis--Bellechasse, where the Conservatives have a whopping lead (this conflicts in a major way with an earlier poll which had the NDP much closer in an early stage of its surge), and Pontiac, where the NDP leads by 6%.

The Tories lead in the four other ridings polled: Saskatoon--Humboldt, Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River, Esquimalt--Juan de Fuca and Nunavut. Harper's efforts in the North have really helped Leona Aglukkaq, who polled at over 70%. The only competitive riding is Esquimalt--Juan de Fuca, where the Tories lead the NDP by 5.8%, almost exactly as the model expects.

All these riding polls result in one change: André Arthur retakes his seat by a fraction of a point. This one could bounce back and forth over the weekend... The new projection is thus:

CON - 151
NDP - 86
LIB - 54
BQ - 16
IND - 1

The average Conservative national lead is 8.8%.

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

"The Québec numbers are pretty run-of-the-mill: NDP at 42%, 16 in front of the Bloc, with the Grits and Tories well back around 15%."

We really are through the looking glass when we can say that the NDP at 42% in Quebec is "run of the mill!"

chimurenga said...

Quite right!

Election Watcher said...

Writing that did feel a bit weird...

Ian said...

I thought exactly the same!

What do you think about the story the Toronto Star is running, that Tory strategists supposedly admit that a majority is probably impossible now? Because you're still projecting it, or at least showing that it's very close. Do you think the Tories are playing the media? Are they that cunning? (The idea being that if Canadians think the majority won't happen, some of the anti-Harper voters will relax and stay home.)

Election Watcher said...

Ha! I was just going to write a post about that later tonight :) I believe they may indeed be playing the media. The numbers they give aren't implausible, but they are a pessimistic scenario for what could happen outside Ontario. I don't think *any* of the 8 projections based on a polling average requires them to win 74 Ontario seats in order to gain a majority.

Ian said...

In the last days of the election, we are all starting to think alike :)