Kudos to EKOS for its prompt posting of the regionals! (Go here for a discussion of the national numbers.) The big news is the NDP's 13.5% lead over the Bloc in Québec, 38.7 to 25.2, with the Liberals and Conservatives under 15%. Also, unlike Nanos, EKOS picked up NDP rises in the Atlantic (NDP first!), Ontario (NDP still a somewhat distant third) and BC (NDP a close second).
This poll also puts the Conservative lead over the Liberals at just 6.6% in Ontario. That appears bad for Harper's majority hopes, but the poll also has him 2% ahead in the GTA, a big change from 2008 that would allow him to gain several seats.
Adding this poll to the projection results in many changes:
- NDP gains one seat each from Grits, Tories and Bloc in Québec;
- NDP gains one seat from Tories in Ontario;
- NDP gains one seat from Tories in BC;
- NDP loses one seat to Tories in Saskatchewan.
Furthermore, I am starting to phase in the GTA effect. For now, this results in the Liberals losing two seats to the Tories.
The projection is thus:
CON - 154
LIB - 66
NDP - 51
BQ - 36
IND - 1
The NDP is now equidistant from the Bloc and Liberals seat-wise. It is still 1.9% behind the Grits in the polling average, mostly because I make an in-house adjustment reflecting the NDP usually performing worse at the ballot box than in polls. The Tory lead over the Liberals decreases slightly, to 13.3%.
As promised, I give you projection numbers based on this poll alone:
Canada: 138 C, 104 N, 60 L, 6 B. (Yes, that's 104 New Democrats and 6 Bloc.)
Québec: 57 N, 8 C, 6 B, 4 L. (Yes, that's 57 New Democrats.)
These numbers leave me speechless, so I'll let you do the commenting.
Update: EKOS' own seat projection is not too far from mine:
Canada: 131 C, 100 N, 62 L, 14 B, 1 I
Québec: 53 N, 14 B, 4 C, 3 L