Monday, April 25, 2011

EKOS Regional Breakdown

Kudos to EKOS for its prompt posting of the regionals! (Go here for a discussion of the national numbers.) The big news is the NDP's 13.5% lead over the Bloc in Québec, 38.7 to 25.2, with the Liberals and Conservatives under 15%. Also, unlike Nanos, EKOS picked up NDP rises in the Atlantic (NDP first!), Ontario (NDP still a somewhat distant third) and BC (NDP a close second).

This poll also puts the Conservative lead over the Liberals at just 6.6% in Ontario. That appears bad for Harper's majority hopes, but the poll also has him 2% ahead in the GTA, a big change from 2008 that would allow him to gain several seats.

Adding this poll to the projection results in many changes:
- NDP gains one seat each from Grits, Tories and Bloc in Québec;
- NDP gains one seat from Tories in Ontario;
- NDP gains one seat from Tories in BC;
- NDP loses one seat to Tories in Saskatchewan.
Furthermore, I am starting to phase in the GTA effect. For now, this results in the Liberals losing two seats to the Tories.

The projection is thus:

CON - 154
LIB - 66
NDP - 51
BQ - 36
IND - 1

The NDP is now equidistant from the Bloc and Liberals seat-wise. It is still 1.9% behind the Grits in the polling average, mostly because I make an in-house adjustment reflecting the NDP usually performing worse at the ballot box than in polls. The Tory lead over the Liberals decreases slightly, to 13.3%.

As promised, I give you projection numbers based on this poll alone:

Canada: 138 C, 104 N, 60 L, 6 B. (Yes, that's 104 New Democrats and 6 Bloc.)
Québec: 57 N, 8 C, 6 B, 4 L. (Yes, that's 57 New Democrats.)

These numbers leave me speechless, so I'll let you do the commenting.

Update: EKOS' own seat projection is not too far from mine:

Canada: 131 C, 100 N, 62 L, 14 B, 1 I
Québec: 53 N, 14 B, 4 C, 3 L

24 comments:

Andre said...

From the GTA numbers you can see that the Ekos poll is junk. The Tories are not gonna be ahead by only 6% in Ontario yet lead by 2% in the GTA. Sorry for NDP fantasies(the Liberals are out of this election) but basic stats will tell you this.

Election Watcher said...

As I mentioned in my GTA post, Forum shows something worse: Tories win by 14% in Ontario, 18% in GTA. It's tentative, but the GTA may well have swung more strongly than the rest of Ontario.

Carl said...

The GTA number isn't that hard to fathom - the GTA includes a lot of potentially pro-Tory ridings. And to anyone who says the Tories can't win big in Toronto I have two words: Rob Ford.

Carl said...

That being said, since I don't buy the Ekos numbers nationally - they're just too far out of touch with other pollsters on too many fronts (and inconsistent with my own gut instincts and observations), I'm not sure I'd give too much weight to Ekos' regional numbers.

Moreover, even in their own right, they're odd. For example, they have 44% of Canadians thinking the government is going in the right direction, but only 34% of Canadians looking to reelect that government? I mean, I'd expect some gap, but that's a hefty one.

On the other hand, off the top of my head, I can't think why Ekos' numbers would be so consistently different from those prepared by other, equally reputable, polling firms. Certainly, Ekos wasn't far off other firms in 2008.

Election Watcher said...

If my memory is correct, in 2008, EKOS tended to have high Ontario Tory numbers, while Nanos tended to have low ones. I have no clue why that flipped...

I also seem to recall that Ipsos put out seat projections with the Liberals at 60 seats... in 2004. To be fair, this was when most polls suggested a slight Tory lead, but still.

I currently have a 10-point Conservative lead in Ontario.

Anonymous said...

Jerry
Interesting poll results, I think there is a 6% swing downward for the cons though. Same as the Liberals last time under Dion and for the same reasons. I live in Bev Oda Riding and commute regularly to TO. Bev Oda signs are matched by the Liberals in Bowmanville (campaign centre of Bev Oda) Only reason this would happen is voter disenchantment. Oda will (almost certainly) still win her riding but not with 50% of the vote.

Anonymous said...

I think the key point already made is NDP polling usually does not hold up on voting day. A lot depends on what Liberal voters are going to be thinking when casting their ballots. Whatever the differences are between Cons and Libs the one thing they both have in common is a huge concern about a NDP government and Jack Layton holding the keys to power.

Anonymous said...

Of course...most of the carnage will be in Quebec it seems..so...who knows? Hopefully Blue Libs in Ontario are watching this election closely..otherwise there is trouble ahead...

Anonymous said...

One more thought. It will be fascinating and enlightening to watch how the mainstream media will be covering this story between now and May 2nd. For whatever you can say about them...they have their ear pretty close to the ground. As much as they clearly do not like a Harper government..that has been clear last 2 elections except to the most naive...they are not stupid! They know a NDP led coalition would be economic suicide for the country!And from what I can tell they have pretty much given up on the Liberals. The thing to watch now is the coverage from here on in. If the tone changes and more favorable to the tories...then that will be a good indication the NDP is in all reality becoming a true threat!

John said...

For the record, this is how Ekos did last time...

http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2008/10/2008-election-results/

About 7 or 8 off on Tory % and seats, good every where else. They seem a little off on the vote splitting between Libs and Cons.

John said...

I would also point out that it was one of the the deepest polls so far. 2,783 with an error rate of 1.8.

The Nanos was 1200 with an error rate of 2.8

Not saying its right. I'm just saying.

Anonymous said...

That link leads to nowhere John...may be incomplete...

Jeremy said...

NDP support tends to drop off for a very good reason: With the NDP as also-rans, some of their supporters vote Grit to try to minimize the damage of a Tory win; others are just disgusted and stay home.

THIS time around, you're not going to see that. With the NDP surging, support is only going to solidify. With a chance at them moving into official opposition status - or even the PMO? - you're going to see Grits and Greens doing their own strategic voting.

I think you should NOT be applying your usual "NDP drop-off" filter... in fact, even with out the filter you may end up under-estimating final support (as you did with the surging Tories last time around).

Anonymous said...

Jeremy...

I would agree with your premise to a certain degree..in so far as it applies to the Greens. The green vote is a mile wide and an inch deep. But the Liberals...not at all! There is no natural home in the NDP's for the Lib's! Their vote will switch to Conservative should it look more and more like Jack Layton becomes PM! I guarantee you that!

John said...

The link is fine, and maybe is one word.

Anonymous said...

Got the link John..finally lol! It was my bad did not lead me there in the first place! But as for the final relevance of that last poll..by Ekos...in 2008..close I suppose...but also really off! All I can come away with is...next Monday is gonna be a really really late night! ;-)

Election Watcher said...

Jeremy: It's still true that the NDP vote is young, and that usually means lower participation.

In 2008, the Tories didn't really have the momentum in the late campaign polls, unlike the NDP this year. That extra dozen seats they got just came out of nowhere. This could happen to the NDP this year, but it could just as well happen to any party.

As for strategic voting to block Harper, the situation is actually very similar to 2008. Outside Québec, it's still mostly NDP out West and Liberal in Ontario/Atlantic. In Québec, one would vote Bloc around Quebec City and in the Saguenay region.

Election Watcher said...

John: I think Anonymous meant that the link "may be incomplete" :) Thanks for the link.

Anonymous said...

Your comments are very interesting. Tnx 4 sharing them. Am very intrigued by your numbers for NDP seats in Quebec. Excited, but intrigued. 54 Dippers can't be right! Don't get me wrong I'd be a very happy guy but... 54?

Election Watcher said...

Thanks, Anon 11:24p! It's actually 57 NDP seats in Québec based on the EKOS poll alone. At least that's what the model spits out.

I actually believe that the model goes overboard. The reason is that the NDP narrowly (by less than 5%) wins 20 seats, but only narrowly misses out on 5. If you define "narrow" as by less than 10%, it's 39 vs. 15.

Given the asymmetry in risks, I'd say something like 50 seats might be a better estimate of the NDP Québec count if EKOS' numbers pan out. That still gives them 97 seats nationwide, and the Bloc would still be at risk of losing official party status...

Larry said...

This is a mischievous attempt to influence voters away from Conservative. Ekos exists only for this purpose
Polls should be banned during election campaigning because of dishonesty that can only contribute to confusing numbers,
See Ipsos-Reid update later this week of its April 21st, 2011 poll.
Google Ipsos-Reid Polls
Larry

Election Watcher said...

Larry: What are you talking about? If anything, this poll might send blue Liberals Harper's way, and help build a Conservative majority. Conversely, polls showing Harper in majority territory may induce some drawback from electors that want a Conservative government, but don't trust Harper enough to give him 4 years of unimpeded rule.

Lots of folks in the media think Ignatieff is having a good campaign. But they know from the polls that it's not working, so the storyline is one of Liberal panic. If there were no polls, there'd be a lot more positive coverage for Ignatieff. I sense from your comment that you wouldn't like that one bit.

I look forward to the final Ipsos poll. Ipsos and EKOS have actually been consistent about the trend in the Tories' popular vote through the campaign: it's been flat. In fact, virtually every pollster shows that, save for Forum showing a 5% Tory drop (from 41% a month ago to 36% last week).

The View From Steeltown said...

The comments about the NDP vote not holding on election day do not apply to the current set of circumstances. In the past the Liberals could always count on a last minute strategic voting campaign to steel NDP votes. This won't work this time. If anything the "strategic" vote may turn against the Liberals this time around. I see the end of the BQ in sight and the implosion of the Liberal Party if the trend holds.

Election Watcher said...

As I said, NDP voters still tend to be younger, and in most ridings, how you would vote strategically actually hasn't changed.

However, it's definitely possible that distracted left-wing strategic voters in Ontario hear about the NDP wave and vote NDP, even though they should still be voting Liberal to block Harper. In that case, the NDP vote would hold up better than usual.

Looking at "Absolutely certain to vote" numbers in the latest EKOS poll, there's some evidence of that - the NDP is not losing support. On the other hand, now that an NDP government is a real possibility, there could well be a recoil effect at the ballot box. For now, I'll keep the small adjustment I've been making all along.