Nanos: Tories by 12.7, NDP Flat

After a one-day hiatus, Nanos' tracking poll suggests that the NDP's rise may be done, or at least taking a break. Indeed, the New Democrats are flat everywhere in the country (and down in the Atlantic), meaning that their April 23 numbers weren't better than their April 19 ones. Still, the Bloc fell in Québec, so the NDP is now within 3.5% of the lead there.

This is a very good poll for the Conservatives, who take a 12% lead over the Liberals in Atlantic Canada and Ontario. These are exactly where Harper needs to make gains in order to win a majority. In both cases, because the NDP did not increase, these were likely direct gains at the expense of Liberals (it seems rather likely that it went LIB->NDP->CON). The Liberals did gain at the expense of the Tories in BC.

Many changes in the projection: the Grits lose three seats to the Tories, two in Ontario and one in New Brunswick. The NDP gains three seats, one from the Bloc, one from the Liberals in Québec, and one from the Conservatives in BC.

CON - 152
LIB - 71
NDP - 43
BQ - 41
IND - 1

Finally, the NDP surpasses the Bloc in the projection! The Liberals have relinquished almost all of their gains made in the first week of the campaign. The average Conservative national lead is now 12.7%, virtually the same as on Day 1.