Sunday, April 24, 2011

Nanos: Tories by 12.7, NDP Flat

After a one-day hiatus, Nanos' tracking poll suggests that the NDP's rise may be done, or at least taking a break. Indeed, the New Democrats are flat everywhere in the country (and down in the Atlantic), meaning that their April 23 numbers weren't better than their April 19 ones. Still, the Bloc fell in Québec, so the NDP is now within 3.5% of the lead there.

This is a very good poll for the Conservatives, who take a 12% lead over the Liberals in Atlantic Canada and Ontario. These are exactly where Harper needs to make gains in order to win a majority. In both cases, because the NDP did not increase, these were likely direct gains at the expense of Liberals (it seems rather likely that it went LIB->NDP->CON). The Liberals did gain at the expense of the Tories in BC.

Many changes in the projection: the Grits lose three seats to the Tories, two in Ontario and one in New Brunswick. The NDP gains three seats, one from the Bloc, one from the Liberals in Québec, and one from the Conservatives in BC.

CON - 152
LIB - 71
NDP - 43
BQ - 41
IND - 1

Finally, the NDP surpasses the Bloc in the projection! The Liberals have relinquished almost all of their gains made in the first week of the campaign. The average Conservative national lead is now 12.7%, virtually the same as on Day 1.

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hello.

Which seats in particular do you see switching today?

Election Watcher said...

L to C
Moncton--Riverview--Dieppe, NB
Guelph, ON
Vaughan, ON

C to N
Surrey North, BC

6 NDP seats in Quebec (3 new):
Outremont, Gatineau, Jeanne--Le Ber, Brossard--La Prairie, A--BJ--N--E, St-Lambert

The NB and BC switches were by just 0.1%, so could easily reverse.

Skoblin said...

Thanks EW

I was sort of figuring Surrey-North was on the precipice, but was more included to consider Pontiac in Quebec rather than A--BJ--N--E.

By the way, thank you for your site. As an ex-pat, I have been reduced to following this election through the internet and your site has been a welcome fix for my political addiction.

cheers,
skoblin

Election Watcher said...

Thanks Skoblin. Actually Pontiac isn't even that high on the list for my model: several other seats like Hull--Aylmer, Westmount--VM, Laval, etc. come before it. However, I don't account for strategic voting, which may help the NDP in Pontiac.

This is the 4th federal election in a row for which I'm an expat. I move back to Canada this summer, so I'm annoyed that they couldn't wait until the fall. I've still never voted on a regular ballot...

prof7043 said...

I may have posted here before. PEI media insiders tell me that next week the PM and Mackay are visiting the 3 PEI Liberal ridings. They think except for Wayne Easter, those ridings are in play.

Strictly anecdotal. _If_ true, totally missed by polls.

Election Watcher said...

Thanks for the information. I find that quite surprising: Easter won Malpeque by just 4.9% last time, while MacAulay won Cardigan by 23.2%. Charlottetown is an open seat, so I guess anything can happen despite the large Liberal lead (18%) last time.

The projection actually has Malpeque close to tipping.

Who knows, maybe we'll get a PEI poll in the last week...

Skoblin said...

EW

I forgot to mention a new riding poll in Chambly-Borduas in Quebec

Yves Lessard/Bloc 37%
Matthew Dube/NDP 24%
Jean-Francois Mercier/Ind 15%
Bernard Delorme/LPC 15
Nathalie Ferland-Drolet/PC 7%
http://tvanouvelles.ca/lcn/infos/national/federales2011/archives/2011/04/20110424-071516.html

Election Watcher said...

Thanks Skoblin! Very much appreciated.