The Toronto Star reported this morning that the Conservatives think it is "almost impossible" for them to win a majority. Specifically, they say they need to win 74 Ontario seats in order to get to 155. Are these sources telling the truth, that they're at just 81 outside Ontario?
Here is the number of ex-Ontario seats projected for the Conservatives by each of the 8 websites that use a polling average:
Calgary Grit: 98 (from Monday)*
Canadian Election Watch: 91
Too Close to Call: 87
The Mace: 87
Riding by Riding: 85 (from earlier today)*
*The latest projection's breakdown is not available.
Is the Conservatives' internal polling having them a lot lower than public polls? Do they use a seat model that's significantly less generous to them than all the ones above?
Unlikely. They are probably playing the media, perhaps hoping that fewer left-wingers in the GTA vote if they don't think a Tory majority is possible. Update: Or maybe they're trying to lower expectations, so that they can have more legitimacy if they "unexpectedly" come very close to 155.
To be fair, just 81 seats outside Ontario isn't insanely low, but it's just not what you'd expect, on average, based on current Conservative numbers.