Friday, April 29, 2011

Conservative Majority Out of Reach? NOT SO FAST!

The Toronto Star reported this morning that the Conservatives think it is "almost impossible" for them to win a majority. Specifically, they say they need to win 74 Ontario seats in order to get to 155. Are these sources telling the truth, that they're at just 81 outside Ontario?

Here is the number of ex-Ontario seats projected for the Conservatives by each of the 8 websites that use a polling average:

Calgary Grit: 98 (from Monday)*
ThreeHundredEight.com: 92
LISPOP: 91
Canadian Election Watch: 91
Too Close to Call: 87
The Mace: 87
democraticSPACE: 85
Riding by Riding: 85 (from earlier today)*

*The latest projection's breakdown is not available.

Is the Conservatives' internal polling having them a lot lower than public polls? Do they use a seat model that's significantly less generous to them than all the ones above?

Unlikely. They are probably playing the media, perhaps hoping that fewer left-wingers in the GTA vote if they don't think a Tory majority is possible. Update: Or maybe they're trying to lower expectations, so that they can have more legitimacy if they "unexpectedly" come very close to 155.

To be fair, just 81 seats outside Ontario isn't insanely low, but it's just not what you'd expect, on average, based on current Conservative numbers.

15 comments:

Anonymous said...

shhh

Anonymous said...

New Angus Reid poll from the last two days: Tories 37, NDP 34, Liberals 19. Majority territory with 4 point lead?

http://www.angus-reid.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/2011.04.30_FedPoli_CAN.pdf

Anonymous said...

errr, 3 point lead I meant...

Anonymous said...

errr, scratch again, 4 points: NDP actually at 33%. Obviously too sleepy!

Skoblin said...

I agree EW, majority still within reach. The NDP rise/Liberal fall in Ontario has still not reached the threshold stage in which vote-slitting among the Left-Center becomes vote-concentration. If it satys below this level, one might see a number of 905/Greater Toronto seat flipping from the Liberals to the Conservatives.

Skoblin said...

did I say "vote-slitting"? I'm obviously as sleepy as Anonymous....

Top Can said...

Of course the Torstar has to say that. Their patron, the Liberal Party, is essentially looking at decimation Monday, reduced to third place. They need to report on something that will give them a last shot of legitimacy.

Election Watcher said...

Really? I think it's the Tories saying that so that Toronto Liberals either don't vote or switch over to the NDP, ensuring more Conservative victories. Also, if you lower expectations now, the Tories will look more legitimate if they win, say, 153 seats.

Anonymous said...

As a demoralized Liberal myself, the only reason to vote Liberal now was that news headline so it might go both ways.

The ndp have no showing here (I have yet to see their candidate poster anywhere) and my riding has a liberal incumbent (GTA).

Election Watcher said...

Anon 8:42a: Despite everything that's happened, this election is still about the Tory/Liberal race in Toronto, in that the most important question is still whether Harper gets a majority. Only if the answer is 'no' do all the post-election scenarios involving PM Layton become relevant.

I'm thinking the Tory officials were probably calculating that the only thing making people stick with the Grits in the GTA is the fear of a Conservative majority. Perhaps they were trying to be too cute, and might end up energizing Liberals like you...

Anonymous said...

Yes I think it was too cute, the star is Liberal pretty much and this story was on the front page of their newspaper for Friday meaning they too were happy or at least energized to hear that.

Anonymous said...

I have them right now with only 82 seats outside of Ontario, so I think the the sources may be on to something. They're going to lose seats in BC, Alberta (yes), Sask, Quebec and NS. NB may be the only province outside of Ontario where they will gain.

Election Watcher said...

I can see them that low with a modest amount of wishful thinking. But I'd be shocked if the Tories get fewer than 75 outside Ontario - everything would need to go wrong for them to get that low. 81 is not that much higher, and in my opinion still involves many things going wrong and not much going right.

Ian said...

Anonymous at 8:42, I feel sorry for you. I used to live in a riding where my party (NDP) never got more than 10% and it felt like my vote was always wasted. But think about it, your vote can still count. The Liberals are in a tight race with Tories in the GTA (outside downtown Toronto where it's mostly Liberal-NDP). Please help us prevent Harper from getting a majority.

If I were in York Centre, for example, I would vote for Ken Dryden this time. And I'm an NDPer.

Finally, even if you're in a riding where the Tories have it in the bag, it's still worth voting. You'll contribute to the vote count (for or against) which does send a message about legitimacy/popular support.

Anonymous said...

strategic voting is the ONLY way to go, if we're not to suffer under "Harper Government 3"