Update: A commenter has provided me with the regional breakdown for the COMPAS poll. The numbers are very strong for the Conservatives across the board (not surprising given their 21% national lead), and weak for the Liberals (especially in Québec with just 13%).
We also have
How will I deal with the COMPAS poll in making projections if regional details are not released? As it turns out, what we know of the COMPAS regional results are only slightly more favourable to the Tories than polling averages, except in Ontario, where the 17% Conservative lead is triple that shown by other surveys. What I will do is simply to move one seat from the Liberals to the Conservatives in Ontario for the next few days, and otherwise ignore this poll.
With that adjustment in mind,
NDP - 32
The average Conservative national lead
This morning, we also have results from flash polls about the debate by Ipsos and Léger. Both suggest that Harper "won", while Ignatieff and Layton were roughly tied. These are quite similar to Nanos' "leadership index" numbers since the start of the campaign. The Ipsos survey also suggests that Ignatieff was not selected as the winner by many voters that did not have an pre-debate opinion about who would perform better - these split between Harper and Layton. Still, the Liberal leader didn't lose his supporters.
All this suggests that there will not be much change in voting intentions in the aftermath of the debate. Therefore, the question for the rest of the campaign is likely: Conservative majority or minority? That is, unless something huge happens during the French debate tonight.