Saturday, April 9, 2011

Nanos: Tories by 8.8

Today's Nanos poll shows little change in the Conservative-Liberal gap, but is shockingly bad for the NDP: just 13.2% nationally and 8.4% in Ontario. The NDP would lose more than half of its caucus on numbers like these. Fortunately for them, other pollsters have not picked up this strong downward trend.

The regional numbers are quite good for the Grits in this poll: they are essentially tied with the Tories in the Atlantic and in Ontario, and can now hope to make gains in Québec. This helps the Liberals score above their 2008 seat count in the aggregate projection for the first time of the campaign:

CON - 148
LIB - 78
BQ - 49
NDP - 33

I have 49 seats projected for the Bloc, but they are very close to losing several additional seats. Still, one needs to remember that they managed to win a (bare) majority of Québec seats in 2000 while losing the popular vote. So while they might get down to the low- or mid-40s if the current trend continues, it would take a game changer for the Bloc to drop more than a dozen seats.

The average Conservative national lead barely moves: 10.9%.

Addendum: Here are the results of two Québec riding polls, showing a 20% NDP lead in Outremont (Mulcair vs. Cauchon) and a 20% Liberal lead in Lac-Saint-Louis (where Larry Smith is attempting to put the Tories on the scoreboard on the Island of Montreal). These are pretty much what you would expect based on provincial polling averages.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Sorry but I really don't agree with your projections in terms of the Bloc and the Liberals in Quebec ....

1. There is now way the Bloc would lose more than a ''dozen seats'' in QC given the recent polls -- they've won with great majorities in most of the ridings...

2. How can you even imagine the Liberals making ANY again in Quebec ? If anything, they'll be able to retain most of their seats, but chances are that no matter how popular the Liberals get throughout this campaign, there is NO WAY they could even pick up 1 or 2 additional seats !! :)

Election Watcher said...

1. I agree with you. Re-read what I wrote!

2. The Bloc got 14.3% more than the Liberals in 2008. Nanos has the gap at 12%, EKOS at 10.3%, Forum Research at 4%. So it's entirely possible for the Liberals to make gains.

Volkov said...

Anon,

You do realize that there are roughly 4-5 ridings where the difference between the Libs and Bloc was less than 3%, right? That's not a huge number to over come, especially was Watcher pointed out, when the diff between the parties is shrinking.