Tuesday, April 26, 2011

Ipsos: Tories by 13 in BC Lower Mainland

There is no Nanos poll today because of Easter Monday yesterday. However, Ipsos Reid has conducted a poll in the largest region of the country where all three main federal parties are competitive: BC's Lower Mainland. It has the NDP up 5% since 2008, while the Grits and Tories each lose 1%.

Based on this poll alone, we would see only one seat out of 20 change hands in the region: Surrey North, switching from the Conservatives to the NDP. This is exactly what my current projection shows, so this poll causes no change:

CON - 154
LIB - 66
NDP - 51
BQ - 36
IND - 1

The survey does suggest Vancouver South, currently Liberal, is more precarious than previously thought, while North Vancouver, currently Tory, is safer. However, throughout this campaign, Ipsos has produced much higher Conservative numbers than all other pollsters (except COMPAS). Taking that into account, this poll suggests that the Lower Mainland is moving almost exactly like the rest of BC.

Today should bring us new data from EKOS, who is planning daily releases from now on. We should also get the rest of the regional breakdowns from Innovative Research (MB/SK and AB) and Environics (all but QC and ON). Obviously, there might be other polls as well. So stay tuned!

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