Tuesday, April 19, 2011

2008 All Over Again, Except in Québec; GTA Key to Tory Majority

In each of the six "polling regions" of the country (Atlantic, Québec, Ontario, MB/SK, Alberta, BC), all major parties are within 4% of their 2008 score. There are only three exceptions:

- NDP up 9% in Québec
- Bloc down 5% in Québec
- Liberals up 6% in Alberta (yes, totally irrelevant)

Relative to the 2008 results, only 10 seats are projected to change hands:

- Esquimalt--Juan de Fuca (L to C)
- North Vancouver North (C to L)
- Brampton West (L to C)
- Sault Ste. Marie (N to C)
- Welland (N to C)
- Ahuntsic (B to L)
- Gatineau (B to N)
- Haute-Gaspésie--La Mitis--Matane--Matapédia (B to L)
- Montmagny--L'Islet--Kamouraska--Rivière-du-Loup (B to C)
- Avalon (L to C)

Obviously, if the election were today, there would probably be more than 10 changes. The model is biased against predicting changes because, unless an explicit adjustment is made, there cannot be changes that cancel each other within the same region. In real life, this of course happens.

If the election were today, based on the track record of a similar projection methodology in 2004, 2006 and 2008, I'd say that the Tories would have about one chance out of three of winning a majority. Harper would need to win 6 additional seats, with the following 23 being the most likely targets (current projected winner in parentheses):

West and North
- Western Arctic (N)
- Burnaby--Douglas (N)
- North Vancouver North (L)
- Edmonton-Strathcona (N)
- Elmwood-Transcona (N)

Ontario
- Ajax--Pickering (L)
- Bramalea--Gore--Malton (L)
- Brampton--Springdale (L)
- Don Valley West (L)
- Eglinton--Lawrence (L)
- Guelph (L)
- Kingston and the Islands (L)
- London North Centre (L)
- Mississauga South (L)
- Sudbury (N)
- Thunder Bay--Superior North (N)
- Vaughan (L)
- York Centre (L)

Québec
- Chicoutimi--Le Fjord (B)

Atlantic Canada
- Malpeque (L)
- Moncton--Riverview--Dieppe (L)
- Random--Burin--St. George's (L)
- St John's South--Mount Pearl (L)

As you can see, eight of these are in the GTA, almost as many as in all of Canada outside Ontario!

4 comments:

dean rebel said...

Restigouche-Madawaska might be possible, given the Conservative candidate...

Election Watcher said...

Interesting... The Liberals did carry the riding by a comfortable margin in 2008, but the race between the same two candidates was very tight in 2006. Given the star Tory candidate, this seat could indeed well flip if the electorate feels more like in 2006. Thanks for the pointer!

Anonymous said...

There is no seat called Vancouver North.

Election Watcher said...

Of course - I meant North Vancouver.