The latest Harris-Decima poll confirms what other pollsters are seeing on the national level. All five pollsters that have polled this week show a 3-7.5% Tory lead over the NDP in their most recent survey.
If you're a Conservative, however, this is a terrible poll: the Liberals have a 1% lead in all-important Ontario. Under this scenario, it would be impossible for Harper to aspire to a majority.
If you're a Bloc voter, this is also a terrible poll: it has the NDP 20% ahead of the Bloc. Under uniform swing, such an outcome would leave the Bloc with a grand total of 1 (yes, that's one) seat. Obviously, in reality, swings vary by riding, so the Bloc would probably keep a few more. However, it would probably lose official party status.
The changes in the projection this time around are:
- The NDP gains a seat from
BQ - 18
IND - 1
The average Conservative lead decreases to 10.1%.
Once again, our friend Skoblin points us to a riding poll, this time from Trois-Rivières. It shows a 14-point NDP lead over the Bloc, in a riding where the Dippers got 9% of the vote in 2008. This is one of the seats the Bloc lost to the NDP in the last projection update, so it's good to see confirmation.