Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Thursday, April 28, 2011

Harris-Decima: Tories by 5; Trois-Rivières Riding Poll

Update: Two Tory seats were mistakenly allocated to other parties. See corrections below.

The latest Harris-Decima poll confirms what other pollsters are seeing on the national level. All five pollsters that have polled this week show a 3-7.5% Tory lead over the NDP in their most recent survey.

If you're a Conservative, however, this is a terrible poll: the Liberals have a 1% lead in all-important Ontario. Under this scenario, it would be impossible for Harper to aspire to a majority.

If you're a Bloc voter, this is also a terrible poll: it has the NDP 20% ahead of the Bloc. Under uniform swing, such an outcome would leave the Bloc with a grand total of 1 (yes, that's one) seat. Obviously, in reality, swings vary by riding, so the Bloc would probably keep a few more. However, it would probably lose official party status.

The changes in the projection this time around are:
- Liberals take one Conservative seat in Ontario.
- Tories make it up by reclaiming the NS seat it dropped to the NDP earlier today.
- The NDP gains a seat from each of the three other parties in Québec the Bloc and the Grits. The Bloc seat is Gilles Duceppe's own. The Tory seat is Beauport--Limoilou, admitted to be vulnerable to a Conservative operative. (Correction: Beauport--Limoilou had already been allocation to the NDP in the last update!)

CON - 151 153
NDP - 82 81
LIB - 56 55
BQ - 18
IND - 1

The average Conservative lead decreases to 10.1%.

Once again, our friend Skoblin points us to a riding poll, this time from Trois-Rivières. It shows a 14-point NDP lead over the Bloc, in a riding where the Dippers got 9% of the vote in 2008. This is one of the seats the Bloc lost to the NDP in the last projection update, so it's good to see confirmation.


Bryan Breguet said...

With the numbers from HD only, I would get 5 Bloc... Hey, it's still 5x better than your projections for this party! lol

Election Watcher said...

That's roughly what I would get too if I had to project on those numbers because I would add riding polls. My guess is that the Bloc would get something closer to 8-10 just because there are so many seats the NDP is supposed to win by 10-15%.

If the Bloc were to be wiped out, election results would be similar to the pattern of the 1960s-80s, except with Québec voting NDP.