Thursday, April 28, 2011

Harris-Decima: Tories by 5; Trois-Rivières Riding Poll

Update: Two Tory seats were mistakenly allocated to other parties. See corrections below.

The latest Harris-Decima poll confirms what other pollsters are seeing on the national level. All five pollsters that have polled this week show a 3-7.5% Tory lead over the NDP in their most recent survey.

If you're a Conservative, however, this is a terrible poll: the Liberals have a 1% lead in all-important Ontario. Under this scenario, it would be impossible for Harper to aspire to a majority.

If you're a Bloc voter, this is also a terrible poll: it has the NDP 20% ahead of the Bloc. Under uniform swing, such an outcome would leave the Bloc with a grand total of 1 (yes, that's one) seat. Obviously, in reality, swings vary by riding, so the Bloc would probably keep a few more. However, it would probably lose official party status.

The changes in the projection this time around are:
- Liberals take one Conservative seat in Ontario.
- Tories make it up by reclaiming the NS seat it dropped to the NDP earlier today.
- The NDP gains a seat from each of the three other parties in Québec the Bloc and the Grits. The Bloc seat is Gilles Duceppe's own. The Tory seat is Beauport--Limoilou, admitted to be vulnerable to a Conservative operative. (Correction: Beauport--Limoilou had already been allocation to the NDP in the last update!)

CON - 151 153
NDP - 82 81
LIB - 56 55
BQ - 18
IND - 1

The average Conservative lead decreases to 10.1%.

Once again, our friend Skoblin points us to a riding poll, this time from Trois-Rivières. It shows a 14-point NDP lead over the Bloc, in a riding where the Dippers got 9% of the vote in 2008. This is one of the seats the Bloc lost to the NDP in the last projection update, so it's good to see confirmation.

2 comments:

Bryan Breguet said...

With the numbers from HD only, I would get 5 Bloc... Hey, it's still 5x better than your projections for this party! lol

Election Watcher said...

That's roughly what I would get too if I had to project on those numbers because I would add riding polls. My guess is that the Bloc would get something closer to 8-10 just because there are so many seats the NDP is supposed to win by 10-15%.

If the Bloc were to be wiped out, election results would be similar to the pattern of the 1960s-80s, except with Québec voting NDP.