Friday, April 22, 2011

Nanos: Tories by 11.7 Over Liberals, 14.1 Over NDP

Today's Nanos poll shows a continuing NDP increase, along with modest drops by the Liberals and Conservatives. The NDP rises everywhere except in BC, and are now tied with the Liberals for second in Atlantic Canada, 5% behind the Tories. Despite gains, the NDP is still shown 5.5% behind the Bloc in Québec and below their 2008 result in Ontario.

The Liberals are modestly down everywhere except on the Prairies. The good news for them is that the Tories are down even more both nationally and in Ontario. There is no sign (yet?) of a Liberal collapse in Ontario, which would deliver a Conservative majority.

The only change in the projection moves one Bloc seat to the NDP. Actually I still have the NDP ahead in only 3 ridings, but it is so close to winning several additional ones that in practice, it would in all likelihood get at least one of them.

CON - 150
LIB - 76
BQ - 41
NDP - 40
IND - 1

The average Conservative national lead is stable at 12.4% over the Liberals. I have the Grits at 4.9% over the NDP.

A note about poll depreciation. Given the avalanche of polls this week, I have restarted accelerating poll depreciation, as I had said I might do. Prior to today, polls up to 3 days old received full weight, while those up to 12 days old got some weight; I'll call this the 3/12 formula. Today's projection is based on a 3/11 formula. I don't yet know what cutoffs I'll end up setting for the final projection - this will depend on how many polls we get next week - though it'll be somewhere between 1/6 and 3/10. In any case, none of the polls published as of now will receive any weight in the final projection. I believe that this is appropriate as things are moving so fast that the situation on Election Day might not resemble what we have today, especially in Central Canada.

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