Sunday, April 10, 2011

Nanos: Tories by 7.9, Bloc Slides

Today's Nanos poll shows little notable movement outside Québec (the NDP is back up to 12.3% in Ontario from a suspiciously low 8.4%). However, in La Belle Province, the Bloc another 4 points mostly to the Liberals, which reduces their lead over the Grits to a mere 5.2%. If the election plays out this way, the Liberals would win about 20 seats there. The Bloc dip recorded by Nanos is consistent with what other pollsters are reporting.

The slow and steady Liberal rise continues in the aggregate projection:

CON - 148
LIB - 79
BQ - 48
NDP - 33

The average Tory national lead is 10.8%.

Addendum: Since no other pollster came out with new numbers this weekend, I had some fun playing around with Nanos' numbers. Based on this poll alone: 153 C, 92 L, 42 B, 20 N, 1 I. In my opinion, this is probably the worst case scenario for the NDP.

No comments: