Saturday, April 23, 2011

No Nanos Today; Segma: Bloc by 6 in Brome--Missisquoi

Because yesterday was Good Friday, there is no Nanos update today as the pollster took a break.

I came across a Segma riding poll in Brome--Missisquoi. This poll is helpful, since I had the riding as a Liberal-Bloc tossup (Liberals marginally ahead by 0.3%), with the NDP 5-6% behind. Segma has the Bloc leading the Liberals and NDP 32-26-26, so I was not far off. Still, this poll does tip the riding to the Bloc in the projection:

CON - 150
LIB - 75
BQ - 42
NDP - 40
IND - 1

Segma notes that throughout the four days of polling, which was conducted Monday through Thursday, the NDP progressed at the expense of the Bloc, while the Liberals held steady. On the last day, the NDP was almost tied with the Bloc.

Looking at contemporaneous provincial polls, the NDP polled 20% better than in 2008, while its progress in Brome--Missisquoi was 17%. The Bloc lost 9% province-wide, but just 3% in this riding. The Liberals are down 7% both across Québec and in Brome-Missisquoi, while the Tory losses are 4% and 8% respectively. What we can see is that variations in Brome-Missisquoi are quite consistent with provincial variations - the differences can be mostly attributed to statistical noise. Still, the Bloc does seem to be retaining a bit more of its support in the riding. Two potential explanations come to mind:

- The Bloc often scores higher in polls than in elections. If this overvaluation of the Bloc in surveys is more pronounced in rural Québec, a Brome--Missisquoi poll will overstate its support more than a provincial poll.
- The Bloc candidate Christelle Bogosta was, in fact, the NDP candidate in 2008 and nominated by the NDP for this election. She defected shortly before the start of the campaign. Perhaps she is helping the Bloc bleed less to the NDP than it otherwise would.

(The Conservative campaign claims to have a poll showing the NDP ahead, with the Bloc in second, the Tories in third and the Liberals in fourth, 20% from the lead. This is, of course, completely unreliable, and could be an attempt to move moderate federalists from the Liberal to the Conservative camp.)

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