Angus Reid has the NDP still third, but at a high 27% in Ontario. That's actually an increase of just 3% over last week's survey: Angus Reid has usually had the NDP higher than everyone else in Ontario. But even if it were at 27%, it would not gain more than a handful of seats in Ontario.
One place where Angus Reid and EKOS disagree is BC, where Angus Reid shows a healthy Conservative lead while EKOS shows a tight race. Here Angus Reid is much closer to the polling average.
The NDP has hit the red zone in Québec. In the projection, it gains 7 seats there, six from the Bloc and one from the Grits. The Grits further lose St. John's South--Mount Pearl to the NDP. Finally, the Tories are down two seats in Ontario, one to the Grits and one to the NDP. (
The new projection has the Grits holding on to second place by the slimmest of margins:
CON - 154
LIB - 62
NDP - 61
BQ - 30
IND - 1
The average Tory national lead over the Liberals is flat, at 13.3%. However, the NDP is now in second place, 13.2% from the Conservatives. You can see that the icon following the "13.2%" on the top left has changed from the Liberal logo to the NDP logo.
So the first hour of the day has been interesting. We will get EKOS and Nanos updates later, so stay tuned!
Minor Correction: The further phasing in of the GTA effect in fact caused no net change. The model now has a GTA effect at 3%, and currently that translates to a net gain of 3 seats for the Tories.