Tuesday, April 26, 2011

Angus Reid Regionals: NDP at 27% in Ontario

Angus Reid has obliged and promptly posted its regional breakdown. (Unlike Innovative Research Group...) It is very consistent with what we are seeing from EKOS: three-way race in Atlantic Canada (though Angus Reid doesn't put the NDP first), large NDP lead in Québec (9% here), Tories strong on the Prairies.

Angus Reid has the NDP still third, but at a high 27% in Ontario. That's actually an increase of just 3% over last week's survey: Angus Reid has usually had the NDP higher than everyone else in Ontario. But even if it were at 27%, it would not gain more than a handful of seats in Ontario.

One place where Angus Reid and EKOS disagree is BC, where Angus Reid shows a healthy Conservative lead while EKOS shows a tight race. Here Angus Reid is much closer to the polling average.

The NDP has hit the red zone in Québec. In the projection, it gains 7 seats there, six from the Bloc and one from the Grits. The Grits further lose St. John's South--Mount Pearl to the NDP. Finally, the Tories are down two seats in Ontario, one to the Grits and one to the NDP. (The Tories would have lost another seat, but I've further phased in the GTA effect, which caused no net change.)

The new projection has the Grits holding on to second place by the slimmest of margins:

CON - 154
LIB - 62
NDP - 61
BQ - 30
IND - 1

The average Tory national lead over the Liberals is flat, at 13.3%. However, the NDP is now in second place, 13.2% from the Conservatives. You can see that the icon following the "13.2%" on the top left has changed from the Liberal logo to the NDP logo.

So the first hour of the day has been interesting. We will get EKOS and Nanos updates later, so stay tuned!

Minor Correction: The further phasing in of the GTA effect in fact caused no net change. The model now has a GTA effect at 3%, and currently that translates to a net gain of 3 seats for the Tories.

5 comments:

Bryan Breguet said...

Did I miss some polls? Why are the Tories so high in Ontario? Also, it seems you have the Conservatives rising in the past couple of days, how come? The last couple of polls we had were not that favourable for the Conservatives, with Ekos giving them a short 5-points lead, as did Angus-Reid?

Although I guess it depends how you use the nanos polls as they are showing a huge lead in Ontario.

Just thought I would ask.

Election Watcher said...

The phasing in of the GTA effect accounts for 3 net extra Tory seats. That's the extent of their gains in the past few days in Ontario, and almost the extent of their national gains as well. Partially out methodological changes, the Tories have been flat. I will have improved trend graphs tonight that show this clearly :)

As for why the Tories didn't drop, it's happening mostly because last week's polls, when the Liberals were still in respectable territory, are being depreciated. Also, the Environics poll helps sustain the Tories.

Election Watcher said...

*Partialing, not partially :)

Anonymous said...

"large NDP lead in Québec (9% here)" - Doesn't AR show an 11% lead?

Election Watcher said...

38-29, no?