Saturday, April 30, 2011

Frank Graves is a Tease

Apparently, EKOS numbers, although fairly stable, show some very interesting things that might explain last night's revelation about Layton (I'm not going to dignify that story by linking to it).

Has the NDP surged into the lead in BC? Or is it now taking more from the Tories than the Liberals in Ontario? Neither appears particularly likely, but either would seriously damage Harper's chances at a majority.

What we do know is that EKOS numbers don't point to a Conservative majority. For the rest, gratification is denied until tomorrow, when, as appears likely, a massive orgy of polls will be upon us, climaxing in a final projection and ropes of accompanying posts in the wee hours of Monday morning. Frank, you tease!

(So yeah, I will post regularly tomorrow, but wait until after midnight to make a final projection. It is possible that some pollsters release data from tomorrow's polling at night - that has been done in the past.)

21 comments:

willge said...

The "very interesting things" tweet is open to interpretation.

The "explain" tweet would seem to imply not good things for the CPC.

Election Watcher said...

Yeah - that's why I mused about those BC and Ontario scenarios that would really hurt Harper.

willge said...

But, yet one of his tweets also comments that the polls are stable. That comment is also open to interpretation.

Anonymous said...

Latest and most revealing statement thus far in the Graves tweet-watch:

"The polls are fairly stable with some important late trends. The variablity in outcomes is dramatic though. Ontario is key."

Hmmm. "important... late trends... Ontario"...

Skoblin said...

I'm confused by what Frank is implying when he says "The NDP winning out right is also possible..." What does "out right" mean?

Anonymous said...

In other words, the NDP actually taking a plurality of the seats. (It should properly be "outright", incidentally.)

Mike in White Rock said...

I'd expect some changes today with the revelations of Jack's misdemeanor last evening.

that might just change things enough...........

Skoblin said...

Here's Frank's latest....

"another tidbit from the last 3 day roll . it would take less movement to produce an outright NDP win than a CPC majority"

Anonymous said...

Dear Mike in White Rock.

As a Canadian, I am sick and tired of this kind of garbage.

When your political oponent is beating you at the polls, attack his character and dig deep into his past totry to find something wrong.

If you read the story from this very unethical police officer who his hiding behind anonymity, you will see that it is not credible.

We need to get rid of this type of attack in our polkitical system.

Ian said...

Interesting. Maybe this is why Harper's suddenly appealing to blue Liberals. Suddenly he's reaching out to his opponents. That struck me as significant.

On another topic, Mike in White Rock, do you notice how you deviate from the facts when you talk about a "misdemeanor"? This is how innocent people get smeared, and how the democratic process gets ruined.

It's like the children's game of talking telephone. You might not intend to, but as you repeat a story, you embellish it and add meanings. Please be careful.

Anonymous said...

Graves is getting very sensationalist isn't he?

Seems more like he wants to make news then report the polling. Release the poll and stop wanting just the Headline..

Anonymous said...

This is politics. I'm sorry if your offended that someone calls a spade a spade. If this was the other way around, the opposition parties would be all over it.

jusvisiting said...

I disagree. I think what Graves is seeing is a trend towards the Liberals from the NDP (just like NANOS).

He is waiting till tomorrow to see what effect Jacks massage is going to have.

Anonymous said...

It just seems so unprofessional what Graves is doing. If you have a poll ready release it. Don't do this drip drip of nonsense over twitter to get attention. I haven't seen any other pollster in Canada do this.

chimurenga said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
chimurenga said...

Anonymous (7:00 PM) says : "If this was the other way around, the opposition parties would be all over it."

In fact, it is the other way around - in spades (to reincarnate your metaphor). Since the start of the election there have been quite a few revelations of Conservative misdeeds - in these cases, actual misdeeds, not slanderous assertions of such : the ballooning projected costs of the fighter jets, the Carlson affair (http://thetyee.ca/News/2011/04/27/CarsonOilSands/index.html), the Patrick Muttart smear attempt against Ignatieff, Harper's suppression of facts to promote prison building... These are all real scandals, and all but one are of serious proportions, yet they have hardly made a ripple next to the ridiculous tall tale of the "massage parlour".

Anonymous said...

Jackie Boy

For all those who think the Sun shines out of Jack Layton's ........ end, the basic facts are as follows. Layton and his wife Olivia Chow both sat on Toronto City Council for years before making the move to federal politics. While on City Council, they were making $100,000 a year. They used a fraudulent scheme to get into subsidized housing. What they did was register the house in the name of Chow's mother who was an unemployed immigrant. In this way, they lived for years in a taxpayer funded house while being paid $100,000 yearly from taxpayers.
They only moved when a reporter exposed the story. The real irony is that Chow styled herself as an advocate for the homeless on City Council.
It astounds me that the media never mention this. It was theft, pure and simple.Today, Layton and Chow earn $350,000 together as MPs. They each get a housing allowance for living in Ottawa although they live together.
According to House of Commons records for 2010, they spent one million dollars last year on travel and perks. Because they're MPs. there is no detail. When asked, Layton said that most of it was for travel back to Toronto to visit their constituents. That comes out to $20,000 a week for travel. Toronto is 300 miles from Ottawa. Again, it's theft, pure and simple. But speaking of simple, NDP loyalists see Jack and Olivia as the working man's friends. The simplistic media play up this image. Simplistic Canadians give Jack a free ride on trust. Now the other night during the big debate Jack had the nerve to say we don't need more jails because all the crooks are already in the Senate.

I think we better make Jack a Senator! Cheers

Anonymous said...

This guy does not sound like a pollster. IMO, n before Masturgate there was a chance that the Conservatives and Liberals would pick up a bit. It seems Nanos picke dup on this.

Election Watcher said...

Anon 11:52p: Angus Reid, with a bigger sample, suggested the opposite, so at the point it would be prudent to assume that the small NDP dip in the latest Nanos poll was just statistical noise.

Anonymous said...

Are you projecting a Con majority?

Election Watcher said...

Not now, but still waiting for final polls to come in. Most updated projection is at the upper left - currently 153 Conservatives.