Wednesday, April 27, 2011

Nanos: Tories by 10 over NDP, by 21.2 (over Grits) in Ontario

After a one-day hiatus, the daily Nanos poll is back, and how! It shows a 4.2% one-day national jump for the NDP, meaning that it got 12.6% more on April 26 then April 21. Not surprisingly, all other parties (save the Greens) are down.

Nanos has the NDP up 12% in Québec, but if you're a junkie like me, that's old news. The big story is that the NDP has eaten into the Liberal vote in Ontario, allowing the Conservatives to build a 21.2% lead even while losing 1%. This would give them around 70 seats in Ontario, and Harper would get a majority with room to spare.

Because the NDP is in the "paying zone" in Québec, this poll has a dramatic effect on the projection. The Dippers pick up 8 (typo) 7 seats in Québec alone, 5 (typo) 4 from the Bloc and 3 from the Liberals, both of whom are starting to lose Montréal fortresses like Hochelaga and Notre-Dame-de-Grâce--Lachine. Even Gilles Duceppe's own riding is in peril, and would already have gone NDP were it not for a Leader's effect. The NDP now has more seats than the Bloc in Québec, 29 to 26.

The Conservatives pick up a seat from the NDP in BC due to methodological change. They also gain two from the Liberals in Ontario, one of which is also due to methodological change. They would have lost a seat to the Grits in PEI if it weren't for the vote share adjustment modification. (Sorry, mistake when using old model.) So although the projection has the Tories picking up 3 seats, they are in fact flat only up 1.

CON - 157
NDP - 67
LIB - 57
BQ - 26
IND - 1

The average Conservative national lead over the NDP is 13%. That's a drop of 0.8%, since the previous update would have shown 13.8% using the new formula.

The Tories have now gained 7 seats in 5 days, putting them in majority territory. However, 6 5 of these seats were due to methodological change. Therefore, taking into account the apparently increased Conservative swing in the GTA and the increased greater motivation of Tory voters, the Conservatives have been virtually flat since the end of week 1, and were almost always in (or on the edge of) majority territory. I will have a trend graph tonight (or tomorrow, if I'm too drunk after watching Game 7) that makes it easier to separate out the effect of methodological changes in the projection.

I will be pretty busy today, so I might not be able to post again until around 5pm or so. But do check back then for an update!

15 comments:

Anonymous said...

The Liberals collapse in Ontario virtually assures the Tories a majority. We could see them benefit from vote splitting the way the Liberals did in the 90's.

Anonymous said...

would it be possible for you to share the detailed riding-by-riding voting predictions generated by your model? How many votes does each party get in each riding?

Election Watcher said...

Unfortunately, I don't have set up, and doing so would require lots of work. Maybe for the next campaign :)

Skoblin said...

Some new riding polls for you EW,

Levis-Bellechasse and Lotbiniere-Chutes-de-la-Chaudiere
http://www.icilevis.com/fr/accueil-lecture.aspx?sortcode=1&id_article=4853

Hope you know French here...radio news
Hull-Aylmer
http://www.ckoi.com/outaouais/audioplayer-emission.php?mp3=98812

Skoblin said...

Here's a text version for the Hull-Aylmer poll
http://www.cyberpresse.ca/le-droit/elections-federales-2011/la-campagne-en-outaouais/201104/26/01-4393622-proulx-risque-detre-emporte-par-la-vague-orange.php

Anonymous said...

Does your model incorporate anything to account for the fact that 8-9% of all voters (which equals about 15%+ of the likely total number of voters in the final count) have already voted and did so prior to the impact of the latest polling shifts? It seems to me that the size of the advance poll total vote serves as a brake on the effect of any late shifts in voter sentiments....

Election Watcher said...

Skoblin: Thanks, I'll update this afternoon.

Anon 11:28a: Good question. Not yet. My model includes not just the latest polls, but also earlier ones. On average, the numbers still slightly lag the polling numbers from the advance voting period. When they become in line, later today or tomorrow morning, I will take a snapshot, which will be used to break near-ties in subsequent projections.

Skoblin said...

Also found these:
Gaspésie-Îles-de-la-Madeleine
Haute Gaspésie-la-Mitis-Matane-Matapédia
No NDP surge taking place here
http://www.cieufm.com/info.aspx?id=7209

Anonymous said...

http://www.hilltimes.com/dailyupdate/view/grits_set_to_lose_longheld_bastions_in_montreal_and_toronto_to_ndp_dramatic_new_forum_research_survey_says_04-27-2011

Tories 34%

NDP 31%

Grits 22%


Today's EKOS

Cons 34%

NDP 28.1%

Grits 22.9%


Somebody doesn't see the trend?

Anonymous said...

Advance voting is unlikely to dampen the impact of last minute trends. Advance voters tend to be highly motivated partisans who have made up their minds long ago and would not be affected by any late trends even if they waited until election day.

Second, any poll showing the Conservatives south of 38% are nonesense. If you voted for Harper in 2008 you are going to be voting for him in 2011. He may not get more than 38% but he is not going to get significantly less.

Finally, the actual Conservative vote share will always be higher than the final polls for two reasons. First, the Conservatives have the best get out the vote (GOTV) machinery of all the parties in all parts of the country. Second, the Conservative vote tends to be more "intense" than other parties' votes. Conservative voters will get to the polls come "hell or high water". The other parties' voters - not so much. Pollsters have a hard time picking up this intensity unless they do more extensive questioning in telephone operated polls which isn't done in Canada because of the cost. In 2008 all the final polls underestimated the actual Conservative vote for these reasons.

My guess is the NDP will also significantly underperform the final polls in Quebec because the BQ has an excellent GOTV machine and the NDP has no assets on the ground in Quebec, and the BQ vote is very intense unlike this newly found NDP vote.

Anonymous said...

One mistake you're making here is that the same amount of people will end up voting..

Yes, the Conservative voters will be as many as last time.
However, I think that at least another million voters will come out and vote..and they won't be voting Tories this time around.

Skoblin said...

EW,

I have been trying to find Forum Research's regional numbers, but for some reason they don't provide them.
Some of them, however, can be found here - but only for the Tories and Dippers.
http://news.nationalpost.com/2011/04/27/ndp-trail-tories-by-just-three-points-new-poll-finds/

Anonymous said...

Here they are

http://nationalpostnews.files.wordpress.com/2011/04/na0428-party-support.jpg

Jeff Landry said...

"NDP has eaten into the Liberal vote in Ontario, allowing the Conservatives to build a 21.2% lead" - I can understand some lag but this is absurd.

According to polling done over or since Easter, the Tory lead over the Liberals in Ontario is as follows: 6-9 points per three polls by Ekos; 7 points per Innovative Research; 7 points per Angus Reid; and now 10 points per Forum.

Anyone see a disparity here?

Election Watcher said...

Skoblin and Anon 4:24p: Thank you so much for providing those links. They really make this blog better and save me time!

Jeff: Yes, Nanos' numbers are very far from most other pollsters', though both the latest Ipsos and Environics polls have the Tories 14% above the Liberals in Ontario. That's quite a bit lower than Nanos, but not statistically different. My polling average shows a much more modest gap: just over 10%.

Anon 2:49p: I like your first point. That further justifies the snapshot only being used for essentially tied races.

I don't see why your second point is necessarily true. The Tory mini-scandals haven't caught on in any big way, but a small fraction of their former supporters may be turned off.

I'm sympathetic to your third point, which is why my model gives the Tories a small bonus. Still, I wouldn't state it quite so strongly. After all, the Liberals got the ballot box bounce in 2004 and 2006.

I disagree with your last point. The BQ usually underperforms at the ballot box, just like the NDP. It'll be all about which of the two parties does the least poorly. The NDP has enthusiasm on its side, while it's true that the BQ is down to it's hard core. It's very hard to predict what's going to happen in Québec.

Anon 2:54p: We'll see. But many demoralized Liberals might stay home, so I wouldn't bet on such a big increase in participation. Certainly not ruling that out, but am not persuaded.