Angus Reid also has a poll out. The national numbers are unremarkable, except for the nice 21% for the NDP. The only regional numbers I could find are for Ontario and Québec (hopefully the rest will follow later today). The Ontario numbers are par for the course (Tories lead by 8, NDP well behind), but the Québec numbers are interesting: the Bloc at just 34% and the NDP at 24%, ahead of both the Liberals and the Conservatives.
Is the NDP really that high in Québec? On the one hand, the Nanos NDP numbers there have been increasing since April 3, from 13.8% for March 31-April 2 to 18.9% for April 4-6. On the other hand, Angus Reid typically has higher numbers for the NDP than other pollsters. I would venture that the NDP is probably not at 24%, but has indeed gained ground. (ThreeHundredEight.com's hypothesis that it's Layton's appearance at Tout le monde en parle seems plausible as an explanation for part of the increase.)
Despite having two new polls, the seat projection does not change:
CON - 150
LIB - 74
BQ - 51
NDP - 33
I will update the projection for Atlantic Canada, the Prairies and BC when Angus Reid posts the full regional breakdown.
I have not given the NDP a second seat in Québec because that seat would be Gatineau, where a poll taken in mid-March put the NDP in fourth place, 21% from the Bloc. It wouldn't be crazy for the NDP to significantly underperform in Gatineau relative to the rest of Québec: it's a riding that shares lots of characteristics with Ontario, where NDP numbers are actually weaker than in 2008. Of course, an NDP gain there would also be unsurprising. Hopefully we get another Gatineau poll before the end of the campaign.
The average Tory national lead is 11.0%.