Thursday, April 7, 2011

Angus Reid: Tories by 11; Nanos: Tories by 9.2

Nanos' daily tracking is quite stable, except in BC where the Tories slid about 7% for the second day in a row: they now lead the Liberals by only 4.7% and the NDP by 9.6%. (Update: I recorded the wrong Tory number in BC. There was actually not much change there.)

Angus Reid also has a poll out. The national numbers are unremarkable, except for the nice 21% for the NDP. The only regional numbers I could find are for Ontario and Québec (hopefully the rest will follow later today). The Ontario numbers are par for the course (Tories lead by 8, NDP well behind), but the Québec numbers are interesting: the Bloc at just 34% and the NDP at 24%, ahead of both the Liberals and the Conservatives.

Is the NDP really that high in Québec? On the one hand, the Nanos NDP numbers there have been increasing since April 3, from 13.8% for March 31-April 2 to 18.9% for April 4-6. On the other hand, Angus Reid typically has higher numbers for the NDP than other pollsters. I would venture that the NDP is probably not at 24%, but has indeed gained ground. (ThreeHundredEight.com's hypothesis that it's Layton's appearance at Tout le monde en parle seems plausible as an explanation for part of the increase.)

Despite having two new polls, the seat projection does not change:

CON - 150
LIB - 74
BQ - 51
NDP - 33

I will update the projection for Atlantic Canada, the Prairies and BC when Angus Reid posts the full regional breakdown.

I have not given the NDP a second seat in Québec because that seat would be Gatineau, where a poll taken in mid-March put the NDP in fourth place, 21% from the Bloc. It wouldn't be crazy for the NDP to significantly underperform in Gatineau relative to the rest of Québec: it's a riding that shares lots of characteristics with Ontario, where NDP numbers are actually weaker than in 2008. Of course, an NDP gain there would also be unsurprising. Hopefully we get another Gatineau poll before the end of the campaign.

The average Tory national lead is 11.0%.

7 comments:

Carl said...

Perhaps I've misread it, but my reading of Today's nanos poll gives the tories a 9.7% lead (39.3-29.6) over the Liberals and a 14.6%lead over the NDP. I think you may have a typo.

Election Watcher said...

The numbers I see on both the Nanos and the CTV websites are 39.6-30.4-17.2...

Carl said...

Sorry, I was referring to your comment that the Tories were only ahead by 4.7% in BC. I didn't make that clear in my earlier post.

Election Watcher said...

You are right - thanks for the catch! For some reason, I recorded the 39.3% as 34.3%.

Carl said...

I figured as much, it's an easy mistake to make -especially at 7:16 in the morning!

Larry Jones said...

Environics also released a poll today putting the NPD at 21% in Quebec. http://www.environicsresearch.com/media_room/pdf/Environics%20Federal%20Vote%20Press%20Release%20-%20April%207-2011.pdf

You should also be aware that Crop and Leger have for months now been finding increased support for the NPD in QC. The Angus Reid numbers may not materialize when the votes are cast and counted, but they are probably an accurate snapshot.

Election Watcher said...

Larry: Yes, I made the Environics update around the time you posted your comment. Thanks!

Crop and Leger have indeed been high for the NDP for a while, typically putting them around 19% in Quebec. But interestingly, Leger has them lower in its two most recent polls: 15% (3/30-4/2) and 16% (3/23-24). My guess is that the NDP is somewhere around 18-20% now.