Friday, April 29, 2011

Riding Poll: Bloc Holds on by 7 in Berthier--Maskinongé

Cible Recherche has conducted a riding poll in Berthier--Maskinongé. This staunchly pro-Bloc riding was projected to be a tough fight, with a 3% NDP edge. This survey suggests that the Bloc vote may be holding up better in this region than elsewhere.

The Lanaudière region and nearby areas are the most sovereignist places in Southern Québec. Most of the Bloc's close races are there, as it is literally fighting for its survival. Along with far Eastern Québec, this is where the Bloc will make a last stand. Thus, this riding survey is very significant, and suggests that the Bloc might have a better chance at staying an official party than provincial polls imply.

As a result of this riding poll, I will make an adjustment not just for Berthier--Maskinongé, but also for other ridings on the North Shore of Montréal. As a result, the Bloc also retakes Laurentides--Labelle and La Rivière-du-Nord, both of which were projected NDP by under 2%.

CON - 151
NDP - 86
LIB - 55
BQ - 16

Update:
Bernard von Schulmann has alerted me to a Yukon riding poll by DataPath. The Liberal incumbent is comfortably in the lead, as expected.

Update 2: Skoblin points out that Berthier--Maskinongé is the riding where the NDP candidate can barely speak French. I had missed that! Obviously, that means that this poll may not be representative for what's happening in the region. However, the adjustment I made for nearby ridings is a lot smaller than the one applied to
Berthier--Maskinongé. I will keep it since it also serves as a correction for the fact that the NDP was winning lots of close races, but losing very few when I had the Bloc at 13.

10 comments:

Skoblin said...

EW,

I think this particular riding is heavily dependent on what could be described as the anti-star status of the NDP candidate. This is the woman who was accused of running her campaign from Las Vegas where she went on vacation. She has also refused to meet with the media or answer any of their questions - and for a very good reason: in a riding that is almost 98% francophone, she can barely speak English. Thus, I would not necessarily say that the Bloc hold here can necessarily have any statistical implications for adjoining Bloc seats.

Skoblin said...

Edit: I meant say - of course - that she can barely speak French.....

Election Watcher said...

Thanks Skoblin - that's a good point. The adjustment I made for surrounding ridings (3%) is a lot smaller than the one I made for Berthier-Maskinongé (10%), so I'll keep it. It also serves as an indirect adjustment for the fact that risks were very imbalanced for the NDP in the previous projection, as it was winning a ton of close races and losing very few.

Skoblin said...

Frankly, EW, if the NDP can muster 29% for a candidate who can't speak French and doesn't campaign - the Bloc is in worse shape than I thought.

On the by, a report on CBC today that two Bloc officials have written a letter urging Bloc members to vote NDP.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/story/2011/04/29/bloc-quebecois-members-support-ndp.html

Election Watcher said...

I'm not sure how many people in the riding know that she doesn't speak French. It could be a very low fraction of the electorate.

I saw the news about that letter! Not too surprising since I think Quebecers are collectively asking the following question: How can we get rid of Harper? We may well have found the answer!

Ian said...

Indeed, 29% support for an Anglophone in Vegas -- that's hilarious!

Any news about Duceppe's riding? Is he safe?

Election Watcher said...

No riding poll that I know of, but Duceppe is currently projected to lose his seat.

Skoblin said...

New Forum Research poll out
http://ht.ly/4JVNG

Anonymous said...

Skoblin, that poll is two days old.

Election Watcher said...

Yup, already added.