Cible Recherche has conducted a riding poll in Berthier--Maskinongé. This staunchly pro-Bloc riding was projected to be a tough fight, with a 3% NDP edge. This survey suggests that the Bloc vote may be holding up better in this region than elsewhere.
The Lanaudière region and nearby areas are the most sovereignist places in Southern Québec. Most of the Bloc's close races are there, as it is literally fighting for its survival. Along with far Eastern Québec, this is where the Bloc will make a last stand. Thus, this riding survey is very significant, and suggests that the Bloc might have a better chance at staying an official party than provincial polls imply.
As a result of this riding poll, I will make an adjustment not just for Berthier--Maskinongé, but also for other ridings on the North Shore of Montréal. As a result, the Bloc also retakes Laurentides--Labelle and La Rivière-du-Nord, both of which were projected NDP by under 2%.
CON - 151
NDP - 86
LIB - 55
BQ - 16
Update: Bernard von Schulmann has alerted me to a Yukon riding poll by DataPath. The Liberal incumbent is comfortably in the lead, as expected.
Update 2: Skoblin points out that Berthier--Maskinongé is the riding where the NDP candidate can barely speak French. I had missed that! Obviously, that means that this poll may not be representative for what's happening in the region. However, the adjustment I made for nearby ridings is a lot smaller than the one applied to Berthier--Maskinongé. I will keep it since it also serves as a correction for the fact that the NDP was winning lots of close races, but losing very few when I had the Bloc at 13.