Monday, April 25, 2011

Innovative Research: Tories by 13 over Grits, 14 over Dippers; Environics: Tories by 14 over Dippers, 17 over Grits

Andrew Coyne has been tweeting polls, one by Innovative Research (full results to be posted on Macleans), and one by Environics. Both these polls confirm that the Liberals have fallen and are now tied for second place with the NDP, and both show the NDP leading the Bloc by around 10 points in Québec.

However, Ontario, which will determine whether Harper wins a majority, is a point of contention. Environics puts the Conservatives ahead by 14% there, but Innovative pegs the lead at just 5%. Both agree with Nanos that the NDP remains uncompetitive there.

The partial regional breakdowns currently available (Québec and Ontario for Environics, and all but Prairies for Innovative) have been incorporated in the projection. (I'm assuming that the Innovative poll has the same sample size as last week's.) All changes come in Québec, where the NDP now has a 0.5% lead in the polling average. It gains two seats from the Bloc, and one from the Liberals, for a total of 11:

CON - 154
LIB - 69
NDP - 47
BQ - 37
IND - 1

The average Conservative national lead keeps increasing, and has reached 13.5%. The polling average still has the Liberals 2.9% ahead of the NDP.

Update: Just noting that the Bloc has fallen below the majority threshold in Québec. Also, EKOS is planning to release some numbers tonight, so stay tuned.

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