Today's Nanos tracking poll has the Conservatives and Liberals both modestly down, and the NDP modestly up nationally. However, the most notable feature of the poll is the 3.2% gap between Tories and Grits in Ontario, down from 10.5% yesterday and 15.3% in the last non-overlapping poll 3 days ago. This is bad news for Harper: if he wins Ontario by just 3%, he can kiss a majority goodbye.
The other notable number from the poll is the weak 33.8% for the Bloc in Québec. The Bloc would lose several ridings if they don't do better on Election Day.
Both these developments help the Grits, who inch up in the projection:
CON - 153
LIB - 71
BQ - 51
NDP - 33
The average Tory national lead is little changed, at 13.1%.