Friday, April 1, 2011

EKOS: Conservatives by 10.7

The latest EKOS poll is mostly a dozer. It mostly confirms recent polling averages: Grit-Tory tie in the Atlantic, a roughly 10-point Tory lead in Ontario, fairly even split among federalist parties in Québec. As a result, the projection does not change much:

CON - 155
LIB - 68
BQ - 52
NDP - 33

The average Tory national lead barely budges: it is now 13.2%.

EKOS' polling will be weekly during the campaign: Mon-Thu, released on Fri. This would dovetail nicely with Harris-Decima's polls, which cover Thu-Sun and are released on Mon or Tue. Hopefully other firms release something over the weekend, so that we have a chance at some significant movement...

3 comments:

Naveed said...

I find it intersting to compare your Ekos poll with that of Nanos for the comparable ending date, April 1st. Nanos gives the Conservatives a closer percentage to majority territory at 39.4, and a bigger sustained Liberal percentage at nearly 32 percent at the expense of the NDP.
You (Ekos) have a wider gap between Conservatives and Liberals, though Conservatives not much closer to majority, though still possible. Liberals in the Ekos poll not making any gains really.
I think the reality may be that the Ekos numbers for Conservatives are accurate at about 37% but that the Liberals (as under Nanos) are making gains at the expense of the NDP. Probably more than 30% at the moment. I think the gap is probably 6 or 7 between them, but that Liberals have potential to close it, and of course Harper is not completely close to majority territory. Much can change, but I think that both Nanos and Ekos have inaccuracies in their polling to date.

Election Watcher said...

Thanks for the feedback - though please note that I am not affiliated with EKOS in any way! With the latest Nanos release, both firms have the Conservative lead at 11%. It would be helpful to see if other pollsters concur...

Naveed said...

Nanos still has Conservatives under majority if an election were held on April 2nd, while Ekos has them approaching that territory, but not quite there.
Frankly I would not personally cast in stone either polls in many aspects. I think it is safe to say that much can happen before election date on May 2nd anyway, and certainly in my opinion Liberals could close the gap whether it is really 11 point lead by Conservatives or not.
Its going to be interesting to see what happens.