tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4485266386769806559.post6370992129050112898..comments2023-06-03T03:51:36.883-07:00Comments on Canadian Election Watch: EKOS: Tories by just 5.7 over NDP!Election Watcherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10276655533153494264noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4485266386769806559.post-79112842255862760162011-04-25T16:23:57.308-07:002011-04-25T16:23:57.308-07:00Thanks. I had a new post about 30 minutes ago usin...Thanks. I had a new post about 30 minutes ago using these numbers.Election Watcherhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10276655533153494264noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4485266386769806559.post-18952545823943020102011-04-25T16:19:47.855-07:002011-04-25T16:19:47.855-07:00EKOS says the following
BC - CON 34.9%, NDP 30.4%...EKOS says the following<br /><br />BC - CON 34.9%, NDP 30.4%, LIB 24.5%<br />AL - CON 57.5%, NDP 18.8%, LIB 17.3%<br />PR - CON 48.2%, LIB 21.3%, NDP 20.5%<br />ON - CON 37.7%, LIB 31.1%, NDP 22.8%<br />QC - NDP 38.7%, BQ 25.2%, CON 14.7%, LIB 13.1%<br />AT - NDP 34.9%, LIB 29.7%, CON 28.1%Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4485266386769806559.post-49665262770972040892011-04-25T16:16:56.761-07:002011-04-25T16:16:56.761-07:00This is not an outlier as far as EKOS is concerned...This is not an outlier as far as EKOS is concerned. The Conservatives lost less than 1% over the last poll. The NDP gained 4% and the Liberals lost about 1%. Much as that hyped recent Ipsos poll did not indicate a Conservative surge as all their polls put the Conservatives between 42% to 44%.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4485266386769806559.post-71338101894927009992011-04-25T16:05:35.455-07:002011-04-25T16:05:35.455-07:00Yes, the polls are all over the place. That's ...Yes, the polls are all over the place. That's why you need seat projections based on careful averaging :)<br /><br />But if you look at it region by region, there's a fair amount of consistency in Quebec and BC. The sample sizes are so small in the Atlantic and on the Prairies that you expect those numbers to be crazy.<br /><br />The big puzzle is in Ontario, where some pollsters suggest a 5% gap (EKOS, Angus Reid, Innovative), while others show a 15% gap (Nanos, Ipsos, Environics, Forum), with few in the middle. That's the difference between a minority and a majority!Election Watcherhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10276655533153494264noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4485266386769806559.post-47145620294770628822011-04-25T15:54:06.808-07:002011-04-25T15:54:06.808-07:00This one is clearly an outlier. All the others hav...This one is clearly an outlier. All the others have the Conservative numbers about the same between 38 to 41 % within the margin of error. This poll has them at 33.7 a number no other pollster has shown this election.Andrehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05583657850891041490noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4485266386769806559.post-86603310862218384352011-04-25T15:37:31.556-07:002011-04-25T15:37:31.556-07:00Not sure what you think...but this has to be the m...Not sure what you think...but this has to be the most schizophrenic indecipherable election polling-wise in memory. Some polls show a landslide Conservative majority. Some show the end of one or two parties. Some show the same results as the last election. Now this one shows a potential Jack Layton led government! This is where the old expression about art meeting science when it comes to polling colliding and exploding into a acid driven Walt Disney cartoon lol!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com