Updated Trends and Riding Polls

Just five days left in the campaign! The updated trend graph of course shows a steep NDP climb, along with heavy Liberal and Bloc drops. The Conservatives' uptick has been modest, and half of it (3 seats) was caused by the phasing in of a change to the model.

I predicted the flatness of the Conservative seat count in the event of an NDP rise. However, if the Liberals collapse in Ontario, Harper would get a safe majority unless the NDP gets as high in Ontario as it is in Québec - the latter still appears very unlikely.

Two riding polls to report: one by Léger in Lac-Saint-Louis, where Conservative star candidate Larry Smith trails the Liberal incumbent by just 6%, down from 20% in an earlier CROP poll. This Léger poll appears to be dated (the linked writeup only says it was conducted after the debates).

The other poll, conducted 4/18-19, shows Elizabeth May 7% ahead of Gary Lunn in Saanich--Gulf Islands, with the NDP and Liberals both under 10%. Now, this is a poll commissioned by the Green Party and I'm not familiar with this pollster (Oracle). The Conservative support level, 38%, is right around what you'd expect, but one has to be skeptical that May has indeed pushed the NDP and Liberals under 10%. For all these reasons, I will not allow this poll to tip the projection unless there is independent confirmation.