It is now apparent that there is a large voter commitment gap between the Conservatives and the Liberals (not surprising given the way the Liberal campaign is going). See the latest EKOS and Angus Reid polls for evidence. Starting with the next projection, I will make the following methodological change:
Current Vote Share Adjustment: I reduce the vote shares of the Greens and Bloc, and distribute the deductions among the three main parties. Then I reduce the vote share of the NDP, and distribute the deduction among the Tories and Grits.
New Vote Share Adjustment: The first step with the Greens and Bloc remains the same. However, in the second step, I will give the NDP deduction entirely to the Conservatives.
This change effectively shifts half a point from the Liberals to the Conservatives. It doesn't affect the NDP's estimated share (which is still penalized about 1% relative to the raw polling average), but will (very modestly) help the NDP in races against the Liberals and hurt it in races against the Conservatives.