Friday, April 29, 2011

Nine Québec Riding Polls and a Halifax Area Poll

By now you've all come to expect it: Skoblin points out more riding polls.

CROP conducted a collection of six riding polls in the Quebec City area and three in the Saguenay--Lac-St-Jean region. All 6 Quebec City ridings are tight races involving the NDP, just as the model expected:
- NDP vs. Tories: Louis-St-Laurent (tie) and Charlesbourg--Haute-Saint-Charles (NDP by 4);
- NDP vs. Bloc: Québec (tie) and Louis-Hébert (NDP by 2);
- Three-way: Beauport--Limoilou (NDP by 6 over Bloc, 9 over Tories) and Portneuf--Jacques-Cartier (NDP by 2 over André Arthur and 3 over Bloc).

The projection formerly included a downward NDP adjustment because previous riding polls had indicated a weaker NDP rise in the area. All of these polls are consistent with a more refined story: the absence of such an adjustment in ridings with a Conservative incumbent, but a stronger adjustment in ridings with a Bloc incumbent. After this change, the NDP takes Charlesbourg--Haute-Saint-Charles and Portneuf--Jacques-Cartier, both of which it was losing by less than 3%. The projected NDP leads in Québec and Louis-Hébert both shrink, as does the projected Tory lead in Louis-St-Laurent.

In the Saguenay--Lac-St-Jean, CROP has the Tories with a healthy lead in Roberval--Lac-St-Jean and the Bloc ahead in Chicoutimi--Le Fjord. The race in Jonquière--Alma is tight, with the Tories holding a slight edge. All of these are consistent with the model, which takes into account last week's Segma polls in the same ridings, though the Bloc lead in Chicoutimi--Le Fjord is larger than expected.

Finally, MarketQuest-Omnifacts has a Metro Halifax poll. It shows the NDP surprisingly low in the area - in between the leading Grits and trailing Tories, while last time, it held a 10% lead over the Liberals and 20% lead over the Conservatives. However, all four seats in the region are so safe that none of them switches hands, though as indicated in the article, the race in Halifax (the riding) may be closer than expected.

As a result of the changes in and around Quebec City, the projection now gives:

CON - 151
NDP - 89
LIB - 55
BQ - 13

Update:
Reader Dave Roberts mentions an Environics Alberta poll that shows no orange wave there. (Reader JeffS points out the poll was taken before the NDP surge spilled outside Québec.) Really, Environics, or whoever ordered the poll? Alberta?

3 comments:

JeffS said...

Of course the Alberta poll includes no orange wave-- it was taken Apr 15-21, before the wave even began

Election Watcher said...

Good observation. The orange wave was already happening then in Québec - CROP's poll that rocked the country was taken Apr 13-20. But yeah, at that point, no NDP surge in the rest of Canada.

Bernard von Schulmann said...

I do not know if you saw this Yukon poll

http://whitehorsestar.com/archive/story/survey-has-greens-leading-new-democrats/

Libs leading comfortably there