Friday, April 8, 2011

Ipsos: Tories by 15

We finally have a new Ipsos survey. Just like the other polling firms, Ipsos suggests that the race has marginally tightened. However, it continues to be an outlier, as it pegs the Tory lead at 15% (down from 19% in their pre-campaign poll). Ipsos also has the Conservatives ahead of the Liberals by 15% in Ontario, which is a very strong result for the Tories and means that based on this poll alone, the Tories would win a majority. However, it puts the Grits ahead by 16% in Atlantic Canada, though one would assume that it's due to the small sample. The Bloc scores a solid 37% in Québec, but that's down 4% from the pre-campaign poll. In BC, the Tories get a strong 49% while the Liberals get a meagre 16%.

In the aggregate projection, the Liberals and Conservatives trade seats, resulting in no net national changes.

CON - 149
LIB - 76
BQ - 50
NDP - 33

The average Conservative national lead climbs back to 11%.

Addendum: Just wanted to note that with this poll, all the "usual suspects" on the national scene have now come out with a poll fully conducted on or after 3/30, except for Abacus. The one-sentence summary of polling so far: the Tory lead has shrunk, but only modestly, and in Québec, the Bloc has lost a few points to the NDP.

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