One might have thought when the NDP surge started that it might compete for second place with the Liberals. Well, it's instead competing for first with the Tories!
First, today's EKOS shows little meaningful change from yesterday's. The Liberals did lose 2.6% in Ontario, mostly to the benefit of the NDP. This is far from statistically significant, but every point the Liberals lose in Ontario increase Stephen Harper's chance of winning a majority.
Next, Forum Research also has a new poll, all conducted yesterday. It shows the NDP with the largest lead yet in Québec: 40% to 23% for the Bloc. With such numbers, the Bloc risks losing official party status. The NDP also surges to first place in the Atlantic, and is close to the Liberals in Ontario. In this poll, it's the Conservatives and not the Liberals that are down in Ontario, which is bad news for Harper. Further bad news for the PM is that Forum shows the NDP tied with the Tories in MB/SK, and above 20% in AB where it would be competitive for a second seat. In BC, the NDP drops to the benefit of the Greens.
The NDP increases once again in the projection, this time by 4: it takes one seat from the Tories in SK, one from the Grits in ON, another from the Grits in QC, and one from the Bloc. The Tories also take a Liberal seat in ON, but the Grits take one back in PEI. All this gives:
CON - 156
NDP - 71
LIB - 55
BQ - 25
IND - 1
The average Conservative national lead is 11.4%.
Note that this projection does not yet incorporate some new riding polls that some very kind readers have brought to my attention. I will add them after the game, and will also update the trend graph.
Go Habs Go!
9 comments:
Innovative is showing 38.4C 24.9L 23.9N
What a nice site you run. I enjoy it a lot!
The conservatives said at the start of this campaign that Canadians did not want to go to the polls.
Everybody is talking about the NDP right now and their popularity is spreading like wild fire. I like that.
Now, lets see the voter turnout.
Is there any way to predict that?
For us political junkie types this election is shaping up to be one to remember. I hope this one will be studied in the future. Many angles to look at I would say.
Will it be about a purposeful and stealthy campaign by a ruling party designed to split the vote so they can move up the middle (even though the original targets may have switched places a bit. Minor detail.)
Will it be an election about the cult of personality? Tapping into the potential that always lies beneath the surface of the populace to throw out all reason in the passion of the moment?
Will this be an election that see's the extinction of not one..but two stalwart parties?
A middle of the road country suddenly turning to the far left?
A final verdict on polling and it's usefulness or it's uselessness?
May 2nd is going to be so fun!!
Jack Layton's leadership score is now higher than that of the Conservative Leader, a precursor to yet another leap in party support. Sorry to day the Habs fell to the Bruins... :-(
A couple of things to consider. A good article in the G & B today..a rare non-partisan article actually from a unabashed Liberal and left supporting rag.....one which featured a interview with Frank Graves..a heavy weight in the polling industry! Even he admits in a roundabout way polls are more art then science. There really is no way of telling this election this time around how this election is going to turn out. Sorry NDP morons! Sorry Nostalgic Libs! Sorry Cons!
2nd point! Listened to a fairly non-partisan political watcher today...she (or he) ..unearthed an old chestnut from the past..quoting Diefenbaker from the past..."Polls are only good for dogs"..
Yukon John: Thanks!
I think this election shows polls are pretty useful. Otherwise the media would still be talking about a Harper-Ignatieff race. Unless of course the NDP surge doesn't materialize, in which the whole industry will have to rethink things over. The latter is, of course, quite improbable.
Anon 7:15p: Voter turnout is very hard to predict. For example, while everyone thought that the 2008 US Presidential election mobilized the young and energized the electorate, turnout was almost the same as in 2004.
All this talk and polling from the eastern media! People here in the west are wondering what all this hype about the NDP is really all about? We don't see it here. It is mostly media driven. Polls like Ekos are clearly leaning in one direction and it's not hard to figure out what direction that is. Having worked in media research I am very well aware of how bias polls can be and all the reasons for that, even to how the guestions are worded and asked. I believe there will be a huge surprise election day!
You think you could do projections including only polls from the last couple days, instead of all the weighing from polls that are obviously at this point outdated? With this much change in the polls, and its relatively consistency over the past few days, I'd like to see where things would be now if the latest couple days of poll are right.
Excellent site you have here. Your work seems like the least biased of all the people trying to make projections.
Anon 11:05p: Actually, in Québec, the NDP surge happened on its own. Only then did the media start buzzing. So I'd say the Ontario NDP rise is media-driven, but I think most of the Québec one wasn't. In this sense, these polls and the media are helping the Tories gain Liberal seats in Ontario. Are you saying the Eastern media wants a Conservative majority and the death of the Liberals?
Anon 11:13p: Thanks. I might do that at the end of the campaign if it produces significantly results. For now I'll stick with doing some single polls, since I'm lazy and don't want to make a new formula :P I will project based on the Forum numbers alone - hopefully that satisfies you somewhat :)
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