One might have thought when the NDP surge started that it might compete for second place with the Liberals. Well, it's instead competing for first with the Tories!
First, today's EKOS shows little meaningful change from yesterday's. The Liberals did lose 2.6% in Ontario, mostly to the benefit of the NDP. This is far from statistically significant, but every point the Liberals lose in Ontario increase Stephen Harper's chance of winning a majority.
Next, Forum Research also has a new poll, all conducted yesterday. It shows the NDP with the largest lead yet in Québec: 40% to 23% for the Bloc. With such numbers, the Bloc risks losing official party status. The NDP also surges to first place in the Atlantic, and is close to the Liberals in Ontario. In this poll, it's the Conservatives and not the Liberals that are down in Ontario, which is bad news for Harper. Further bad news for the PM is that Forum shows the NDP tied with the Tories in MB/SK, and above 20% in AB where it would be competitive for a second seat. In BC, the NDP drops to the benefit of the Greens.
The NDP increases once again in the projection, this time by 4: it takes one seat from the Tories in SK, one from the Grits in ON, another from the Grits in QC, and one from the Bloc. The Tories also take a Liberal seat in ON, but the Grits take one back in PEI. All this gives:
CON - 156
NDP - 71
LIB - 55
BQ - 25
IND - 1
The average Conservative national lead is 11.4%.
Note that this projection does not yet incorporate some new riding polls that some very kind readers have brought to my attention. I will add them after the game, and will also update the trend graph.
Go Habs Go!