Tuesday, April 19, 2011

Environics: Tories by 15; Innovative: Tories by 11; Today's Recap

Here are the results of the latest Innovative Research Group survey and, through ThreeHundredEight.com, the latest Environics survey. The Innovative Research Group poll is not kind to the NDP, which is in fourth place in Québec at just 16%, and a distant third in Ontario also at 16%. Environics disagrees, putting the two numbers at 26% and 23% respectively. The Environics poll is favourable to the Tories, pegging them 6% ahead of the Liberals in Atlantic Canada, and 24% and 28% ahead of the Liberals and NDP in BC. The Grits are measured at just 14% in Québec by Environics.

Both polls agree that the Tory lead over the Liberals is at 6-7% in Ontario.

This update (actually, the Environics poll) makes the Liberals lose an Atlantic to the Tories and a Québec seat to the Bloc:

CON - 150
LIB - 75
BQ - 46
NDP - 36
IND - 1

The average Tory national lead is 11.5%.

Today's four national polls were bad for the Liberals, who lose two seats to the Tories in the Atlantic, one to the Bloc in Québec, and one to the NDP in BC. This is the first time since March 29 that the Liberals end a day lower in the projection than the previous day. The debate seems to have sapped whatever fragile momentum Ignatieff carried.

The other changes of the day were due to the Quebec City surveys by CROP, which moved Beauport--Limoilou to the Tories and Portneuf--Jacques-Cartier to André Arthur, both from the Bloc.

After the blip downward yesterday, the Conservatives are back to their pre-debate level: 151 seats counting Arthur. The debates seem to have mainly affected the distribution of seats on the left: the Liberals are down 3, the Bloc down 2, and the NDP up 5.

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