Saturday, April 30, 2011

Pontiac Poll and Today's Projections

CROP has the Tories tied with the NDP in Pontiac. So the projection there remains an NDP win.

Here are the updated projections around the web. As usual, I encourage you to visit these websites, which are all linked from the sidebar. I will update this post as more updates are made.

Most Current
151 C, 93.6 N, 45.2 L, 17.6 B, 0.6 I (Calgary Grit - update)
148 C, 97 N, 47 L, 15 B, 1 I (Riding by Riding - update)
153 C, 92 N, 49 L, 14 B (Canadian Election Watch)

Including some polls from today

140 C, 96 N, 57 L, 15 B (LISPOP)
144 C, 59 N, 65 L, 40 B (ThreeHundredEight.com)
Average of 5 projections: 147 C, 88 N, 52 L, 20 B
(Without ThreeHundredEight.com: 148 C, 95 N, 50 L, 15 B)

Including polls from yesterday
149 C, 79 N, 55 L, 24 B, 1 I (democraticSPACE)

Including polls from two days ago
142 C, 88 N, 64 L, 14 B (Too Close to Call)

Including polls from three days ago
143 C, 73 N, 69 L, 22 B, 1 I (The Mace)
Average of 8 projections: 146 C, 85 N, 56 L, 20 B
(Without ThreeHundredEight.com: 147 C, 88 N, 55 L, 17 B, 1 I)

Ranges excluding highest and lowest:
CON: 142-151
NDP: 73-96
LIB: 47-65
BQ: 14-24

2 comments:

Bernard von Schulmann said...

Interesting, my prediction from Monday is not far off where the projections are at now.

I still think the NDP will take fewer seats in Quebec than people and the Bloc more. I also think that the Conservatives are slightly gaining in the popular vote nationally and that the shift from Liberal to NDP may allow a number of Conservatives to win with rather low percentages, that said, I think the Conservatives will lose seats in the west and Quebec

Election Watcher said...

Yeah, you did a good job! I thought the Liberals would be closer, but that's obviously not the case.

If the Bloc holds on to the North Shore of Montreal, I can see them staying above 20. That's a staunchly separatist area, but it went ADQ en masse in 2007.

Agreed on Tory losses in the West and Québec. Those are currently modest in my projection (5), but I can see them doubling if tomorrow's polls show a further moderate NDP progression.