CROP has the Tories tied with the NDP in Pontiac. So the projection there remains an NDP win.
Here are the updated projections around the web. As usual, I encourage you to visit these websites, which are all linked from the sidebar. I will update this post as more updates are made.
Most Current
151 C, 93.6 N, 45.2 L, 17.6 B, 0.6 I (Calgary Grit - update)
148 C, 97 N, 47 L, 15 B, 1 I (Riding by Riding - update)
153 C, 92 N, 49 L, 14 B (Canadian Election Watch)
Including some polls from today
140 C, 96 N, 57 L, 15 B (LISPOP)
144 C, 59 N, 65 L, 40 B (ThreeHundredEight.com)
Average of 5 projections: 147 C, 88 N, 52 L, 20 B
(Without ThreeHundredEight.com: 148 C, 95 N, 50 L, 15 B)
Including polls from yesterday
149 C, 79 N, 55 L, 24 B, 1 I (democraticSPACE)
Including polls from two days ago
142 C, 88 N, 64 L, 14 B (Too Close to Call)
Including polls from three days ago
143 C, 73 N, 69 L, 22 B, 1 I (The Mace)
Average of 8 projections: 146 C, 85 N, 56 L, 20 B
(Without ThreeHundredEight.com: 147 C, 88 N, 55 L, 17 B, 1 I)
Ranges excluding highest and lowest:
CON: 142-151
NDP: 73-96
LIB: 47-65
BQ: 14-24
2 comments:
Interesting, my prediction from Monday is not far off where the projections are at now.
I still think the NDP will take fewer seats in Quebec than people and the Bloc more. I also think that the Conservatives are slightly gaining in the popular vote nationally and that the shift from Liberal to NDP may allow a number of Conservatives to win with rather low percentages, that said, I think the Conservatives will lose seats in the west and Quebec
Yeah, you did a good job! I thought the Liberals would be closer, but that's obviously not the case.
If the Bloc holds on to the North Shore of Montreal, I can see them staying above 20. That's a staunchly separatist area, but it went ADQ en masse in 2007.
Agreed on Tory losses in the West and Québec. Those are currently modest in my projection (5), but I can see them doubling if tomorrow's polls show a further moderate NDP progression.
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