Wednesday, April 13, 2011

EKOS: Tories by 5

The new EKOS poll tells a story that is very different from the COMPAS poll. Like Nanos, EKOS shows a virtual tie in Ontario. However, EKOS did not pick up a Bloc recovery in Québec - it is still in the low 30s, with the three federalist parties still tied around 20. This survey has the Liberals well in front in the Atlantic, but that can be attributed to small sample size. The biggest curiosity is that this poll has the NDP leading the Tories by 10.4% in BC! Even taking the small sample size into account, this is significantly different from the 15% Tory lead in the recent poll average. Still, I'd say for BC, this is probably that 1 in 20 (or 1 in 50) poll we can expect from random sampling.

Although the NDP does well in this survey with 19.1% nationally, it loses a seat in the Prairies. This is because this EKOS poll is 3 days more recent than the previous ones we had with a MB/SK vs. AB breakdown, which triggered a significant depreciation of older polls. The Grits gain a seat in Ontario, so the Tories come out even:

CON - 150
LIB - 79
BQ - 48
NDP - 31

I will update the trend graph posted earlier to reflect this change shortly (I only plot the last projection of each day). The average Tory national lead is 12.1%.

Again, tomorrow's update will be in the afternoon or at night because I am traveling.

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