Thursday, April 21, 2011

Ipsos: Tories by 19 over NDP, 22 over Grits

As if the day didn't provide enough crazy scenarios, here's another, by Ipsos: the Liberals drop to 21% nationally while the Tories surge to 43%!

This poll is stellar across the board for the Conservatives: a 14% lead over the NDP (and 20% over the Liberals) in the Atlantic, a respectable 24% in Québec, 14% ahead of the Liberals in Ontario, over 2/3 support on the Prairies and 46% in BC.

It is dismal for the Liberals. Besides the numbers mentioned above, the Grits are at just 12% in BC. The silver lining is that in Québec, although they're in fourth place (20%), they're actually within striking distance of the leading NDP (28%) and Bloc (27%).

For the NDP, beside their slight lead in Québec, this poll also gives them strong results in Atlantic Canada (30%), Ontario (22%) and BC (32%).

Adding this poll to the aggregate projection moves North Vancouver from the Liberals to the Tories. In Québec, the Bloc loses one seat each to the Liberals and Tories, and gets closer to losing several to the NDP (though none yet).

CON - 150
LIB - 76
BQ - 42
NDP - 39
IND - 1

The average Conservative national lead increases to 12.4%, the highest since the first week of the campaign.

What would Parliament look like with the Liberals this low and the Conservatives this high? A one-poll projection gives me:

CON 175, LIB 49, NDP 49, BQ 34, IND 1

It's a tie for second place! The reason is that by winning Québec by just 1%, the NDP puts itself at the edge of the "Red Zone" without actually cashing in - it gets 9 seats in Québec, against still 34 for the Bloc. The only Liberal seats west of the GTA would be Vancouver Centre and Yukon!

3 comments:

Rocky said...

Are you saying that Ralph Goodale would lose his seat? I find that hard to believe.

Election Watcher said...

Well, based on this poll alone, his seat would be a tossup. I have him losing by 0.3%.

However, he is quite safe based on an average of recent surveys.

Rocky said...

Cool,

I enjoy your sight. Keep up the good work.

Rocky.