Monday, April 18, 2011

Nanos: Tories by 10; Léger: Tories by 12; Angus Reid: Tories by 11, Liberals and NDP Tied at 25%

Three polls this morning confirm that the Conservative-Liberal gap is stable, but the NDP moved up in the Angus Reid and Léger polls. All surveys have been conducted starting on Friday, and are thus very fresh.

Two things about the Liberal-NDP tie reported by Angus Reid. First, Angus Reid often has the NDP higher than any other pollster. Especially given that Léger and Nanos still show the Grits ahead of the NDP (by 4% and 12.4% respectively), NDP supporters should temper their optimism. Second, the Angus Reid survey revealed that the NDP support is softer than that of the three other main parties.

In Québec, the three polls agree: the Bloc has stabilized in the mid-30s, while the NDP, now in the low-to-mid 20s, has pulled ahead of the Liberals and Conservatives, both mired in the high teens.

The other notable results from the Nanos survey are an 8.7% Conservative lead in Ontario, the largest since the 3/30-4/1 poll, and the Liberals within 3.6% of the Tories in BC. Unfortunately, the full regional breakdowns are not yet available for the Angus Reid and Léger polls, so we will have to wait a few hours to see whether these are just statistical blips or new trends.

For now, I have incorporated only the Nanos numbers in the projections outside Québec, and all 3 polls' numbers for my Québec projection. The former moved a seat from the NDP to the Liberals in Ontario, while the latter made the NDP gain their 2nd seat in Québec from the Bloc, which retakes one from the Tories.

CON - 149
LIB - 80
BQ - 48
NDP - 31

However, given the strong NDP national numbers in the Léger and Angus Reid polls, I expect the NDP loss in Ontario to be reversed when the regional breakdowns come out.

The average Tory national lead, incorporating all three new polls, is 11.3%.

Obviously, stay tuned for at least one more update today: we will likely get a Harris-Decima poll this afternoon, and hopefully Léger and Angus Reid will have their regional breakdowns out.

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