EKOS: Tories by 4.8; Nanos: Tories by 5.2

Two more polls suggest that the NDP rise continues at a much slower pace, but tell different stories about the Liberals.

First, today's EKOS survey has the Grits down to 20% nationally, a drop of 2.3%, while the NDP rises by 2.2% to 29.7%. In Ontario, the NDP rises by 3.4% to 26.2%, pulling slight more from the Grits than the Tories, the gap between whom grows to 12.3%. It's now a virtual tie for second place in Ontario. In Québec, the NDP ascension continues, and they build a 13.4% lead over the Bloc. The Liberals tank to 13%. Regionals for other areas will become available later.

Update: EKOS regionals outside Québec and Ontario are now up. The NDP now trails the Tories by just 5.8% in BC.

In the Nanos poll, however, all parties are essentially flat nationally. In Ontario, the Grits gain several points from the Tories (the gap shrinks to 6.5%) while the NDP is flat, which is very different from what EKOS shows. EKOS' sample is much larger, however. In Québec, the Bloc drops to 23.6%, 17.8% behind the NDP. The NDP jumps by 8.3% in BC, and are now within 8 points of the Tories.

In the projection, the NDP takes 5 more seats from the Bloc, which now risks losing official party status. The Dippers also gain one from the Tories in BC. (You may notice that the Tory count went up. That's because I had made mistakes in the previous update, now corrected. Sorry.)

CON - 152
NDP - 87
LIB - 55
BQ - 13
IND - 1

The average Tory national lead shrinks to 9.1%.

I will post another update shortly incorporating a bunch of new riding polls, so check back soon!