Seat projections by a British Columbian and former Quebecer. Occasional random observations and opinions.
Latest national poll median date: October 20 Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.
According to Robert Fife, Angus Reid will release a poll putting the NDP at 30%, within striking distance of the Conservatives. EKOS is not an outlier anymore.
As far as I know, the details are not yet available. Usually Angus Reid polls for La Presse and the Toronto Star, and La Presse often publishes writeups at midnight Eastern Time. Then full details are usually posted on Angus Reid's website the following morning.
The plot thickens. The Ekos poll by Frank Graves..a dyed in the wool Liberal supporter. A Angus Reid poll commissioned by the Toronto Star and Quebec..neither conservative friendly. I will be curious to know how they framed their questions. Hopefully they will reveal that info. I smell a rat and a plot to wake up Liberal and Bloc voters...
Actually, coming from Saskatchewan, where the provincial NDP government were always very prudent managers, I'm not worried about an NDP government at all. It was the Tories that bankrupted that province in the 80s.
Think about it - if you are going to provide decent public services, you have to run a tight financial ship to be able to pay for it.
They did not bankrupt every province they led. If anything they've been too concerned about debts and deficits. There's just this one case where Bob Rae was in a no-win situation because of Mulroney's insane experimentation with zero inflation by means of a greatly enlarged reserve army of unemployed as he implemented free trade and austerity.
Even had Rae not tried to mitigate the damage somewhat with a modest amount of stimulus Ontario would have plunged into record deficit, that's how bad Mulroney's experimentation was....
NDP bankrupting people, look at Nova Scotia. They in my opinion foolishly put the province into surplus despite the continued economic struggles and dampened growth in this effort... can't be seen as spending like drunken sailors.
Layton I think knows better than that - in Nova Scotia they didn't make a 180 degree turn, this inclination of theirs was well-known.
I still have a nagging suspicion that a Prime Minister Layton will be "fiscally responsible" to a fault, though I think it's worth trying the NDP anyway.
NDP governments provincially are totally different animals. All provincial governments are different opposed to their federal cousins. Look at the Liberal gov in BC for instance. They are basically conservative except in name. In any case...ask Ontario or even BC how well things went with an NDP government. And how come Saskatchewan jettisoned the NDP's in favor of the Sask party?
Truth of the matter is...people should be worried about a NDP government federally. VERY worried!!
Anon 8:36p: I really doubt it. Polls like this will either make Liberals and Bloc voters demoralized and stay home, or make them move over to the NDP. In the case of Liberals, their fiscally conservative voters may vote Tory to block Layton.
Just because you don't like the results of a poll doesn't mean it's a conspiracy.
Anon 8:38p: The question is: would we get something like the SK or MN NDP government, or something like the BC and ON NDP government? Unfortunately for Layton, more Canadians are familiar with the latter than the former.
Anon 8:47p: BC Liberals (like Alberta and Quebec Liberals) don't have links with federal Liberals. By contrast, all provincial NDP parties are integrated with the federal NDP.
Anon 8:45p: There's fiscally responsible (balancing the budget) and there's economically responsible (ensuring growth). I think many people's worry is that the NDP cannot manage to do both simultaneously.
I agree only to a certain point. But we are talking about a whole new ball of wax here political landscape wise. A possible NDP PM!
Much has been made of voters in past elections changing their minds at the last minute because of the possibility of a Harper majority. Why would this not hold true at the last minute when most reasonable people consider the possibility of Jack Layton as PM? And you add in that on a gut level that the Liberal campaign really has not fired up the imagination of the average voter or gained traction.
You input the data you recieve on a number level. But even you must admit pollsters get it wrong as often as they get it right.
Elections canada says the advanced polling is up over 35% from the last election. We can somewhat assume there would be an increase on May 2 as well. Usually an increase in voters means a change in government. Most of the polls currently agree that the liberals are on the decline. They are also very clear that the NDP is gaining. They are not very clear on the direction of the Conservatives (due to personal biases- see anything Ekos Graves ever says). Rick Mercer has pushed to get the kiddy vote out and reports are that he has succeeded partially(although I am sure he meant for the liberals to gain). Typically, those voters, through lack of experience and a wish to express themselves, vote without enough knowledge. From extrapolation, we might very well see an NDP government.
Regardless of how people are going to try and associate Layton with SK and MB gov'ts we are likely to see heavy spending and stupid laws which will ruin these 'kiddies' prospects for work. Just read their policies (Loony tunes would be proud) You reap what you sow. I will certainly be asking kiddies what they think about the results of the election when they come looking for work. How they respond will determine if they get the job.
Yes, the awful NDP won't be so fanatical in adhering to NAIRU targets, that will be so bad for young people trying to get work. They will also be foolish enough to increase demand in the economy. Don't you know that jobs are only created after employers are bribed?
An increase in the advance poll does not necessarily mean an increase in voter turnout. In the last BC election each party had a great ground game and got their core supporters to the advance polls. 12% of all registered voters voted in the advance poll. There were predictions of a great turnout on election day. The result -- barely more than 50% showed up (including the 12% who had already voted).
Anon 9:01p: Yes, there's considerable uncertainty concerning whether the NDP will perform better, the same or worse at the ballot box than in polls. We just don't know. That uncertainty dwarfs the adjustment that I put in the model (around 1%).
I'm also not at all convinced that the primary reason for the NDP's past underperformance is strategic voting. First, I don't think that many people vote strategically. Second, most strategic voters know in advance that they'll vote strategically, so their answers in polls would already reflect that. I'd place more weight on demographics, and that hasn't changed much since 2008.
I freaked when I first saw this top line, but ARS's last poll had the Tories at 36% and NDP/Liberals tied at 25% - so NDP growth is at expense of Libs mostly, and probably Bloc as well, not Tories (no more than 1% at least) - depending on how the regionals break out, this could still be large seat changes in Ontario - the question would be can they keep most (all?) of their QC and BC seats, and can the NDP GOTV as well as the Tories can on E-day?
Yes, business sacrifices money for spite... Give me my bribe or I'm out of here... Anyone know what happened in Bolivia after they nationalised the gas fields? They offered the former owners contracts to help run them. Had they been loaded with spite they would have said "Never!" Instead they rushed like mad to bid for the contracts. It's funny how these all-powerful businesses do that. It's funny how Western countries had their best growth back when there was much higher corporate taxes and much higher marginal tax rates for those who made lots of money. According to the voodoo economics that dominate discourse today, those must have been dark ages. In fact, one wonders how those countries survived those dark times.
People do not vote strategically..I agree with you there. It come's down to semantics. Most people vote "emotionally"..at least initially. Truth be known most of the people that vote only do it because they have too. I challenge most voters to list off policy planks and such of any individual party. Most countries are like this.
But somewhere along the line...I am convinced in some strange way...at the ballot box..the people that answer the phone and put up with the pollsters and answer such and such questions at the time..so the pollsters can earn their wage...
..are not at the ballot box the same people that finally cast their ballot. This is where polls and reality either converge or go off in completely seperate directions!
You are a student of politics. You observed the recent British elections. Nick Clegg had the same surge as Jack did.If you went by the numbers. Come poll day...things were entirely different.
One last thing...I am going off the internet between now and May 2nd...because quite frankly...I cannot take much more..but last thought...let us hope all the polls are wrong...I fear for our country if they are right...
To the Tinfoil Hat crew posting above (probably from the same IP address): did you ever consider the remote possibility that those individuals casting ballots in the past for the NDP, and expressing a preference for them now when asked by a pollster, are actually not afraid of PM Layton?
Rather, the seemingly unbreakable ceiling of ~40% on Tory support, despite years of using the apparatuses of government to micro-target, propaganidze and buy votes, proves that people are in fact scared as hell of majority PM Harper?
Anonymous at 10:04 did you ever consider that many of us who have not been voting NDP all these years are very scared of the prospect of Jack Layton as PM, just as you may be afraid of Harper. Our concern, warranted or nor is quite real.
Anon 10:04...number 1: Do not wear a tinfoil hat! That would be even dumber then voting for a NDP government! Fact of the matter is...I have such a tremendous head of hair no hat needed! I look damn sexy with my hair blowing in the wind! Neither do I judge anyone for wearing a hat...whether it is is made out of tinfoil..or fabric...or HEMP...
Number 2:You are either very young..very old..or just really poor..all 3 usually means u have time on your hands..and read alot...because well..you have time on your hands! You use big words lol!
Take some advice from a benevolent citizen that has been around the block a few times...u really do not want an NDP gov running the country! You might think you do..but after 6 month's...you really won;t...
Anon 9:49p: It's true that growth was higher in the 60s and 70s - although the 70s weren't exactly stable. But that was due to two things: first, working-age population growth was much higher. Second, the central banks let inflation run amok, so the North American economy was actually overheating. This led to the terrible recessions of the early 80s and 90s (US hit harder by former, Canada by latter).
Overall, neither the left nor the right is correct. The "workers' heyday" in the 1960s and early 70s felt good for a while, but the loose monetary policy led to big problems later on. You are right that big tax cuts to the rich did not noticeably accelerate long-run growth, at least in Canada. This doesn't mean that the cuts didn't affect growth - maybe they prevented a slowdown, or maybe they prevented an acceleration. (Few sensible theories predict the latter, however.)
It's a bit of a mystery why productivity growth in Canada has been lagging America's. Our GDP growth kept up only because we had better employment growth. Any simplistic right-wing or left-wing answer is probably wrong.
I think I would rather see an NDP government in six monthes than a Harper majority government in eight days...thing are as bad now as I ever want to see them...IMO what will be will be...Craig
The provinces that were led by the NDP were invariably have-not provinces. SK was a have-not province for years which was fundamentally so until the SK party took over. Yes they have had other bad governments, it is true. Having lived there all my life I have seen the tremendous taxes that were levied to pay for social programs, etc., also saw people leaving it in droves due to these factors. This also happened in BC, Manitoba. Who hasn't heard the horror stories of what the Bob Rae government did to Ont! Think and do your research people.
Earl: yes, I absolutely have considered that and I think you and I are approaching agreement. What was missing in my post was "...[60% of] people are in fact scared as hell of majority PM Harper".
My point was addressed to the the Tory Tinfoil Hat Crew (of one?) above, who posted in rapid succession over a few short minutes the message that "rational people" among these 60% hostile to Harper would and should surely come to their senses soon. Presumably they would recognize that, despite thinking they like Jack Layton and saying to pollsters they support his party, that they should actually fear that the NDP Alien Mother Ship was rapidly approaching to lay Martian socialist eggs and drive away the righteous lot of capitalist free enterprise.
You can view the Angus Reid poll here http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/43882/tories-lead-in-canada-ndp-firmly-in-second-place-due-to-quebec-strength/ or just google Angus Reid poll and go to their website.
Rational people? More like ignorant people. Sure, vote for a party that is weak on fiscal policy, driving us into the largest deficit in histo(don't even talk about riding through the recession, that was thanks to the liberals policy pre-harper) wanton spending on useless military projects, out of control spending in other useless venues, fascist social policy, the only party EVER to be found in contempt of parliament, the billion dollar lies etc etc etc. Conservatives need to wake the heck up and realize that this party is sick and needs to be put down... they aren't the party of fiscal responsibility or supporting the troops anymore (veterans pensions cuts?). Wake up Tory dolts, cast your ballot for Canada, not what you THINK is your wallets.
34 comments:
Whoa....
This might be the news needed to wake up rational people and flock to the Conservatives May 2nd.
where do I find the details?
As far as I know, the details are not yet available. Usually Angus Reid polls for La Presse and the Toronto Star, and La Presse often publishes writeups at midnight Eastern Time. Then full details are usually posted on Angus Reid's website the following morning.
I imagine a nightmare scenario of an NDP let government.
They bankrupted every province they led! Does Quebec now have to learn that lesson as well?
Maybe we will become a have-not country....Please God help us!
The plot thickens. The Ekos poll by Frank Graves..a dyed in the wool Liberal supporter. A Angus Reid poll commissioned by the Toronto Star and Quebec..neither conservative friendly. I will be curious to know how they framed their questions. Hopefully they will reveal that info. I smell a rat and a plot to wake up Liberal and Bloc voters...
Actually, coming from Saskatchewan, where the provincial NDP government were always very prudent managers, I'm not worried about an NDP government at all. It was the Tories that bankrupted that province in the 80s.
Think about it - if you are going to provide decent public services, you have to run a tight financial ship to be able to pay for it.
They did not bankrupt every province they led. If anything they've been too concerned about debts and deficits. There's just this one case where Bob Rae was in a no-win situation because of Mulroney's insane experimentation with zero inflation by means of a greatly enlarged reserve army of unemployed as he implemented free trade and austerity.
Even had Rae not tried to mitigate the damage somewhat with a modest amount of stimulus Ontario would have plunged into record deficit, that's how bad Mulroney's experimentation was....
NDP bankrupting people, look at Nova Scotia. They in my opinion foolishly put the province into surplus despite the continued economic struggles and dampened growth in this effort... can't be seen as spending like drunken sailors.
Layton I think knows better than that - in Nova Scotia they didn't make a 180 degree turn, this inclination of theirs was well-known.
I still have a nagging suspicion that a Prime Minister Layton will be "fiscally responsible" to a fault, though I think it's worth trying the NDP anyway.
NDP governments provincially are totally different animals. All provincial governments are different opposed to their federal cousins. Look at the Liberal gov in BC for instance. They are basically conservative except in name. In any case...ask Ontario or even BC how well things went with an NDP government. And how come Saskatchewan jettisoned the NDP's in favor of the Sask party?
Truth of the matter is...people should be worried about a NDP government federally. VERY worried!!
Anon 8:36p: I really doubt it. Polls like this will either make Liberals and Bloc voters demoralized and stay home, or make them move over to the NDP. In the case of Liberals, their fiscally conservative voters may vote Tory to block Layton.
Just because you don't like the results of a poll doesn't mean it's a conspiracy.
Anon 8:38p: The question is: would we get something like the SK or MN NDP government, or something like the BC and ON NDP government? Unfortunately for Layton, more Canadians are familiar with the latter than the former.
Anon 8:47p: BC Liberals (like Alberta and Quebec Liberals) don't have links with federal Liberals. By contrast, all provincial NDP parties are integrated with the federal NDP.
Anon 8:45p: There's fiscally responsible (balancing the budget) and there's economically responsible (ensuring growth). I think many people's worry is that the NDP cannot manage to do both simultaneously.
Election Watcher...
I agree only to a certain point. But we are talking about a whole new ball of wax here political landscape wise. A possible NDP PM!
Much has been made of voters in past elections changing their minds at the last minute because of the possibility of a Harper majority. Why would this not hold true at the last minute when most reasonable people consider the possibility of Jack Layton as PM? And you add in that on a gut level that the Liberal campaign really has not fired up the imagination of the average voter or gained traction.
You input the data you recieve on a number level. But even you must admit pollsters get it wrong as often as they get it right.
Elections canada says the advanced polling is up over 35% from the last election. We can somewhat assume there would be an increase on May 2 as well. Usually an increase in voters means a change in government. Most of the polls currently agree that the liberals are on the decline. They are also very clear that the NDP is gaining. They are not very clear on the direction of the Conservatives (due to personal biases- see anything Ekos Graves ever says). Rick Mercer has pushed to get the kiddy vote out and reports are that he has succeeded partially(although I am sure he meant for the liberals to gain). Typically, those voters, through lack of experience and a wish to express themselves, vote without enough knowledge. From extrapolation, we might very well see an NDP government.
Regardless of how people are going to try and associate Layton with SK and MB gov'ts we are likely to see heavy spending and stupid laws which will ruin these 'kiddies' prospects for work. Just read their policies (Loony tunes would be proud) You reap what you sow. I will certainly be asking kiddies what they think about the results of the election when they come looking for work. How they respond will determine if they get the job.
Yes, the awful NDP won't be so fanatical in adhering to NAIRU targets, that will be so bad for young people trying to get work. They will also be foolish enough to increase demand in the economy. Don't you know that jobs are only created after employers are bribed?
An increase in the advance poll does not necessarily mean an increase in voter turnout. In the last BC election each party had a great ground game and got their core supporters to the advance polls. 12% of all registered voters voted in the advance poll. There were predictions of a great turnout on election day. The result -- barely more than 50% showed up (including the 12% who had already voted).
Well, no one is bribing me. Just, if you vote NDP, good luck getting work. Bye bye business.
Anon 9:01p: Yes, there's considerable uncertainty concerning whether the NDP will perform better, the same or worse at the ballot box than in polls. We just don't know. That uncertainty dwarfs the adjustment that I put in the model (around 1%).
I'm also not at all convinced that the primary reason for the NDP's past underperformance is strategic voting. First, I don't think that many people vote strategically. Second, most strategic voters know in advance that they'll vote strategically, so their answers in polls would already reflect that. I'd place more weight on demographics, and that hasn't changed much since 2008.
I wonder if the CPC campaign will wake up before it is too late?
Now anything less than a CPC majority may mean PM Layton and if that doesn't scare people nothing will.
Earl: I don't think either the Liberals or the Bloc will be keen to legitimize the NDP as a governing party.
I freaked when I first saw this top line, but ARS's last poll had the Tories at 36% and NDP/Liberals tied at 25% - so NDP growth is at expense of Libs mostly, and probably Bloc as well, not Tories (no more than 1% at least) - depending on how the regionals break out, this could still be large seat changes in Ontario - the question would be can they keep most (all?) of their QC and BC seats, and can the NDP GOTV as well as the Tories can on E-day?
Yes, business sacrifices money for spite... Give me my bribe or I'm out of here... Anyone know what happened in Bolivia after they nationalised the gas fields? They offered the former owners contracts to help run them. Had they been loaded with spite they would have said "Never!" Instead they rushed like mad to bid for the contracts. It's funny how these all-powerful businesses do that. It's funny how Western countries had their best growth back when there was much higher corporate taxes and much higher marginal tax rates for those who made lots of money. According to the voodoo economics that dominate discourse today, those must have been dark ages. In fact, one wonders how those countries survived those dark times.
Election watcher...
People do not vote strategically..I agree with you there. It come's down to semantics. Most people vote "emotionally"..at least initially. Truth be known most of the people that vote only do it because they have too. I challenge most voters to list off policy planks and such of any individual party. Most countries are like this.
But somewhere along the line...I am convinced in some strange way...at the ballot box..the people that answer the phone and put up with the pollsters and answer such and such questions at the time..so the pollsters can earn their wage...
..are not at the ballot box the same people that finally cast their ballot. This is where polls and reality either converge or go off in completely seperate directions!
You are a student of politics. You observed the recent British elections. Nick Clegg had the same surge as Jack did.If you went by the numbers. Come poll day...things were entirely different.
One last thing...I am going off the internet between now and May 2nd...because quite frankly...I cannot take much more..but last thought...let us hope all the polls are wrong...I fear for our country if they are right...
To the Tinfoil Hat crew posting above (probably from the same IP address): did you ever consider the remote possibility that those individuals casting ballots in the past for the NDP, and expressing a preference for them now when asked by a pollster, are actually not afraid of PM Layton?
Rather, the seemingly unbreakable ceiling of ~40% on Tory support, despite years of using the apparatuses of government to micro-target, propaganidze and buy votes, proves that people are in fact scared as hell of majority PM Harper?
Anonymous at 10:04 did you ever consider that many of us who have not been voting NDP all these years are very scared of the prospect of Jack Layton as PM, just as you may be afraid of Harper. Our concern, warranted or nor is quite real.
Anon 10:04...number 1: Do not wear a tinfoil hat! That would be even dumber then voting for a NDP government! Fact of the matter is...I have such a tremendous head of hair no hat needed! I look damn sexy with my hair blowing in the wind! Neither do I judge anyone for wearing a hat...whether it is is made out of tinfoil..or fabric...or HEMP...
Number 2:You are either very young..very old..or just really poor..all 3 usually means u have time on your hands..and read alot...because well..you have time on your hands! You use big words lol!
Take some advice from a benevolent citizen that has been around the block a few times...u really do not want an NDP gov running the country! You might think you do..but after 6 month's...you really won;t...
Anon 9:49p: It's true that growth was higher in the 60s and 70s - although the 70s weren't exactly stable. But that was due to two things: first, working-age population growth was much higher. Second, the central banks let inflation run amok, so the North American economy was actually overheating. This led to the terrible recessions of the early 80s and 90s (US hit harder by former, Canada by latter).
Overall, neither the left nor the right is correct. The "workers' heyday" in the 1960s and early 70s felt good for a while, but the loose monetary policy led to big problems later on. You are right that big tax cuts to the rich did not noticeably accelerate long-run growth, at least in Canada. This doesn't mean that the cuts didn't affect growth - maybe they prevented a slowdown, or maybe they prevented an acceleration. (Few sensible theories predict the latter, however.)
It's a bit of a mystery why productivity growth in Canada has been lagging America's. Our GDP growth kept up only because we had better employment growth. Any simplistic right-wing or left-wing answer is probably wrong.
I think I would rather see an NDP government in six monthes than a Harper majority government in eight days...thing are as bad now as I ever want to see them...IMO what will be will be...Craig
The provinces that were led by the NDP were invariably have-not provinces. SK was a have-not province for years which was fundamentally so until the SK party took over. Yes they have had other bad governments, it is true. Having lived there all my life I have seen the tremendous taxes that were levied to pay for social programs, etc., also saw people leaving it in droves due to these factors. This also happened in BC, Manitoba. Who hasn't heard the horror stories of what the Bob Rae government did to Ont! Think and do your research people.
Anonymous at 10:04 here again.
Earl: yes, I absolutely have considered that and I think you and I are approaching agreement. What was missing in my post was "...[60% of] people are in fact scared as hell of majority PM Harper".
My point was addressed to the the Tory Tinfoil Hat Crew (of one?) above, who posted in rapid succession over a few short minutes the message that "rational people" among these 60% hostile to Harper would and should surely come to their senses soon. Presumably they would recognize that, despite thinking they like Jack Layton and saying to pollsters they support his party, that they should actually fear that the NDP Alien Mother Ship was rapidly approaching to lay Martian socialist eggs and drive away the righteous lot of capitalist free enterprise.
If only people knew what was good for them!!!
You can view the Angus Reid poll here http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/43882/tories-lead-in-canada-ndp-firmly-in-second-place-due-to-quebec-strength/ or just google Angus Reid poll and go to their website.
Thanks a lot! Glad the report was posted so promptly. Will update now.
Rational people? More like ignorant people. Sure, vote for a party that is weak on fiscal policy, driving us into the largest deficit in histo(don't even talk about riding through the recession, that was thanks to the liberals policy pre-harper) wanton spending on useless military projects, out of control spending in other useless venues, fascist social policy, the only party EVER to be found in contempt of parliament, the billion dollar lies etc etc etc. Conservatives need to wake the heck up and realize that this party is sick and needs to be put down... they aren't the party of fiscal responsibility or supporting the troops anymore (veterans pensions cuts?). Wake up Tory dolts, cast your ballot for Canada, not what you THINK is your wallets.
I hope/want Ndp win but everyone knows tories are going to win sadly.
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