Thursday, September 17, 2015

Two More Polls: Environics and EKOS Give NDP the Edge

Just after the NDP dropped to its lowest projected seat count and polling average of the campaign, two new polls put it ahead: the weekly EKOS for iPolitics has it barely ahead in a tight three-way race, while the Environics poll put it in the lead by 5 points. No real whopper regionally, with the exception of a 16-point lead for the NDP in MB/SK (clarification: this in the Environics poll) (the Conservatives lead by 11 in the average of other polls).

The new projection gives:

CON - 130 129, -1 -2 (31.0%, -0.5%)
NDP - 116 117, +3 +4 (30.4%, +0.1%)
LIB - 91, -2 (28.4%, -0.4%)
GRN - 1 (5.6%, +0.6%)
BQ - 0 (3.6%, +0.1%)

On the day, the Tories have gained two one seats, and the NDP, one two, while the Liberals have lost three. More interestingly, in terms of the popular vote, the big winners of the day are the Greens, gaining one full point at the expense of the NDP and the Liberals. Part of it is due to Environics: this was its first poll of the campaign, and it had the Greens at a high 8%. But Nanos, Forum and EKOS had the Greens up by 1.5%, 3% and 1.7% respectively over their last (independent, in the case of Nanos) poll.

Without the turnout adjustment, I get:

CON - 120 (29.4%)
NDP - 119 (31.3%)
LIB - 98 (29.2%)
GRN - 1 (5.9%)
BQ - 0 (3.6%)

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