Monday, September 21, 2015

Ipsos: Liberals Lead

The new Ipsos poll is the Liberals' best poll of the campaign (33%), and the first non-Nanos poll to have them in the lead. Particularly encouraging for them is their 9-point lead in ON; however, this does not match what other pollsters are showing, namely a virtual tie between the Grits and Tories there.

This is also the third mediocre poll of the day for the NDP in QC: 41.2%, 38%, 37%. It doesn't really matter whether the NDP is at 40% or 45% there (it is still at 42% in the projection), but if it drops below 40%, seat losses would start coming pretty fast.

As for the Tories, 27% is very low for them nationally, though part of the weakness comes from an implausibly low 39% in AB.

The new projection gives:

CON - 133, -2 (31.3%, -0.4%)
NDP - 114, +1 (29.7%, -0.2%)
LIB - 90, +1 (29.0%, +0.5%)
GRN - 1 (5.2%, -0.2%)
BQ - 0 (3.8%, +0.2%)

On the day, it's a gain of one seat for the Conservatives, and a loss of one seat for the Grits. However, the unadjusted count below moved in the exact opposite direction, and the Grits are actually the winners in the popular vote, gaining 0.5% while the NDP lost 0.4%.

All three main parties are now within 1% in the unadjusted numbers:

CON - 123 (29.6%)
NDP - 117 (30.5%)
LIB - 97 (29.7%)
GRN - 1 (5.5%)
BQ - 0 (3.9%)

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