Sunday, September 27, 2015

Nanos: NDP Drop Finally Shows Up

For a few days, the NDP had relatively good numbers in the Nanos poll, even while other pollsters had it trending down. That is no longer true: the NDP just lost 2.7 points in today's release, dropping to almost 4 points below the Tories and 5 below the Liberals. The question is whether this movement is merely Nanos picking up what showed up elsewhere a bit earlier, or if this is a further slide precipitated by Thursday's debate.

The seat projection is unchanged, but the NDP's lagging further behind in the vote projection:

CON - 137 (33.0%, +0.2%)
NDP - 108 (27.4%, -0.3%)
LIB - 91 (29.2%, +0.1%)
GRN - 1 (5.3%, -0.1%)
BQ - 1 (4.1%, +0.1%)

The unadjusted seat projection is also unchanged, with the polling averages now at CON 31.3%, LIB 30.0%, NDP 28.2%, GRN 5.6%, BQ 3.9%.

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