Saturday, September 19, 2015

Nanos: NDP Slumps

Today's Nanos poll is a little more exciting than usual: the NDP dropped from first to third, recording its worst national number since the start of the campaign: 28.9%. The day-to-day decline of 2.4%, which implies that the NDP was about 7.2% lower in the 9/18 sample than in the 9/15 sample, is (barely) statistically significant at the 95% level.

Today's projection gives:

CON - 131, +1 (31.1%, +0.2%)
NDP - 115 (30.2%, -0.3%)
LIB - 91, -1 (28.5%)
GRN - 1 (5.7%, +0.1%)
BQ - 0 (3.5%)

A note on the two most recent projections: it looks like I failed to take a Québec seat away from the Conservatives, so they should have been a seat lower, and the NDP a seat higher, in those projections. This has now been fixed in those posts. (I'm quite puzzled at how this happened, since it would have required that I transcribe both the national and the provincial numbers incorrectly. I supposed I may have transcribed the provincial numbers while forgetting to change Québec's numbers, kept track of the changes mentally, and then updated the national numbers based on those changes, without verifying if they matched my spreadsheet...)

Without the turnout adjustment, for the first time in over a week, the leader wins by more than 3 seats (though as you have noticed, I don't take note of this number at every update):

CON - 122 (29.5%)
NDP - 117 (31.0%)
LIB - 98 (29.2%)
GRN - 1 (6.0%)
BQ - 0 (3.6%)

No comments: