Friday, September 11, 2015

Nanos: NDP Third; Forum: NDP Clear First...

Contradictory polls this morning! The daily Nanos for CTV has the Tories up to second place, the Liberals down but still first, and the NDP slumping to third, below 30% for the first time in any poll conducted entirely after the start of the campaign. By contrast, Forum still has the NDP at 36%, clearly ahead of the Liberals and Conservatives. However, a good chunk of the NDP lead in the Forum poll is due to its 53% share among the 18-to-34 age group; discounting that age group due to its lower propensity to vote should show a much tighter race.

The new projection has the Liberals losing many seats to the Tories, mainly in ON:

CON - 125, +5 (30.3%, +0.7%)
NDP - 119, +1 (32.0%, +0.5%)
LIB - 93, -6 (29.2%, -0.6%)
GRN - 1 (4.0%, -0.4%)
BQ - 0 (3.4%, -0.3%)

While Nanos has the Grits holding at 40%+ there, with the NDP at just 20.5%, Forum has the NDP marginally ahead of the two other parties. Today's Nanos didn't move the numbers much since yesterday's Nanos showed roughly the same thing in ON; the Forum poll, however, is the first of nine (excluding overlapping Nanos polls) not having the Liberals lead in ON. A blip, or is ON back to a three-way race?

This week's EKOS should be out later today, and at that point, I'll do a roundup of the changes that occurred in the past week.

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