Tuesday, September 22, 2015

Nanos: Stability

Today's Nanos poll does not contain any surprising number relative to the poll average. Nevertheless, the 37.8% for the Conservatives in ON is their best number there since the Aug. 1-28 Nanos poll.

Not surprisingly, today's projection shows little change, though the Tory climb and NDP drop continue:

CON - 134, +1 (31.5%, +0.2%)
NDP - 113, -1 (29.6%, -0.1%)
LIB - 90 (29.2%, +0.2%)
GRN - 1 (5.1%, -0.1%)
BQ - 0 (3.7%, -0.1%)

The unadjusted vote shares for the main parties keep converging: they are now all within 0.5%.

CON - 124 (29.8%)
NDP - 117 (30.3%)
LIB - 96 (29.9%)
GRN - 1 (5.3%)
BQ - 0 (3.9%)

All parties are in an uncomfortable position:

- The Conservatives are at their highest point of the campaign. The question is: is this it? If they don't win a majority, or at least open up a large gap in a minority situation, they may not be able to govern.

- The NDP has lost its national lead, and it has been steadily losing 0.5-1% per week. If this continues for 4 more weeks, it will finish third. Worse, if it is third going into the last week, strategic voters on the left may flock to the Liberals. Mulcair needs to halt this slide, but with 2.5 of the 3 remaining debates in French and with the NDP Québec seat count nearly "maxed out," there is more downside risk than upside potential.

- The Liberals need to break out of the pack in terms of the popular vote: if they don't, the inefficiency of their vote (23% for just 11 seats in Québec, 27% for just 7 seats in BC) will cost them the election. Indeed, the Liberals could well win the popular vote and still finish third.

- The Greens are up just 2 points relative to 2011 in BC. Unless close to half of it is concentrated in one riding, which is quite unlikely, they are nowhere close from winning a second seat.

- The Bloc is fighting for its life, and the prognosis is not good. Expect Duceppe to go all out attacking Mulcair in the two French debates.

2 comments:

Karl said...

Those aren't the numbers for today.

The latest results show:
the Conservatives with 31.3 per cent
the Liberals with 30.3 per cent
the NDP with 29.4 per cent

Election Watcher said...

The numbers above are polling averages: they are based on a weighted average of 15 different polls (though only the recent ones have high weight).