Thursday, September 24, 2015

EKOS: Tories Lead by 9

The details of the EKOS poll that's been much discussed since last night have been posted. The Tories outperform other polls by about 5 points, while the NDP and the Liberals both underperform by about 5 points. (The Greens and "Others" were also high.) The result is a national race that isn't even close.

What accounts for this discrepancy from other polls? It's a mystery. Consider the following:
- The sample size of 2,343 was reasonably large.
- EKOS did not apply a likely voter screen (which might have explained the high Conservative numbers, but would have made the high Green numbers puzzling).
- In recent polls, EKOS tended to have the Tories a bit high, and the NDP and especially Liberals a bit low, but the discrepancies were never anywhere close to this large.
- Tories outperformed the polling average by a consistent margin everywhere - there is no rogue region where the Conservative number was obviously an outlier.

The new projection, which also takes into account Mainstreet's large-sample ON poll Insights West's AB poll (which is in line with the polling average; the Mainstreet poll was already included in the last update!) of course moved toward the Tories:

CON - 138, +4 (32.7%, +1.1%)
NDP - 109, -2 (28.2%, -1.0%)
LIB - 90, -2 (29.0%, -0.6%)
GRN - 1 (5.1%, +0.4%)
BQ - 0 (4.0%, +0.1%)

The Tories lead the popular vote even without the turnout adjustment:

CON - 131 (31.1%)
NDP - 111 (29.0%)
LIB - 94 (29.8%)
GRN - 1 (5.4%)
BQ - 1 (4.0%)

Yes, the Bloc is right at the place where they start taking seats from the NDP. Expect fireworks at tonight's debate!

4 comments:

Greg Hollingsworth said...

Really appreciate your blog!

Election Watcher said...

Thanks! Glad you like it.

Unknown said...

Lots of family in Quebec leaning to Duceppe over immigration and the Niqab...great predictions
NDP support in Quebec will tank this election

buterflyer said...

138 + 4 = 142!