What accounts for this discrepancy from other polls? It's a mystery. Consider the following:
- The sample size of 2,343 was reasonably large.
- EKOS did not apply a likely voter screen (which might have explained the high Conservative numbers, but would have made the high Green numbers puzzling).
- In recent polls, EKOS tended to have the Tories a bit high, and the NDP and especially Liberals a bit low, but the discrepancies were never anywhere close to this large.
- Tories outperformed the polling average by a consistent margin everywhere - there is no rogue region where the Conservative number was obviously an outlier.
The new projection, which also takes into account
CON - 138, +4 (32.7%, +1.1%)
NDP - 109, -2 (28.2%, -1.0%)
LIB - 90, -2 (29.0%, -0.6%)
GRN - 1 (5.1%, +0.4%)
BQ - 0 (4.0%, +0.1%)
The Tories lead the popular vote even without the turnout adjustment:
CON - 131 (31.1%)
NDP - 111 (29.0%)
LIB - 94 (29.8%)
GRN - 1 (5.4%)
BQ - 1 (4.0%)
Yes, the Bloc is right at the place where they start taking seats from the NDP. Expect fireworks at tonight's debate!