Friday, September 25, 2015

Forum and Nanos: No Movement toward Conservatives

After yesterday's EKOS bombshell, Canadian political junkies are on high alert, looking for any further evidence of movement of voting intention toward Conservatives. Today's polls do not show such a change: Forum has the Tories down by 2 compared to last Friday, while Nanos has them down by 2.4 compared to three days ago.

One place where Forum corroborated EKOS is a low NDP number in Québec: EKOS had them at 33% there, Forum 34%. However, Nanos still has the NDP at 41% in QC.

As for the Liberals, they have had a good polling week apart from EKOS: the most recent poll of all other pollsters that have reported this week (Ipsos, Forum, Léger, Nanos) puts the Liberals first (in a tie in two cases).

All this helps the Liberals and the Bloc at the expense of the Tories and the NDP in today's updated projection:

CON - 137, -1 (32.5%, -0.2%)
NDP - 107, -2 (28.0%, -0.2%)
LIB - 92, +2 (29.5%, +0.5%)
GRN - 1 (4.9%, -0.2%)
BQ - 1, +1 (4.0%)

Unadjusted for turnout, it's:

CON - 128 (30.9%)
NDP - 111 (28.8%)
LIB - 96 (30.2%)
BQ - 2 (4.0%)
GRN - 1 (5.2%)

Either this evening or over the weekend, I will update the projection model based on regional breakdowns and riding polls. Stay tuned for a big post reviewing all of those since the start of the campaign!

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