Monday, September 14, 2015

Ipsos: NDP Lead Shrinks

A new Ipsos poll is out, and the NDP lead has shrunk from 4% to 1%. That's well within the margin of error, though. Regionally notable figures include a low 38% for the NDP in Québec, and a 6% lead for the Liberals over the Conservatives in Ontario.

The new projection gives:

CON - 130, -2 (30.9%)
NDP - 115 (31.1%, -0.1%)
LIB - 92, +2 (28.8%, +0.1%)
GRN - 1 (4.5%, -0.1%)
BQ - 0 (3.7%, +0.1%)

Without the turnout adjustment, I get:

CON - 120 (29.2%)
NDP - 119 (31.9%)
LIB - 98 (29.5%)
GRN - 1 (4.8%)
BQ - 0 (3.6%)

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