Sunday, September 27, 2015

Manitoba Poll: Liberal/Conservative Tie, NDP Lags

Probe research released the first Manitoba-only poll of the campaign, with 1,000 respondents. The Liberals are outperforming the projection based on combined MB/SK figures, while the NDP is underperforming.

In the current projection, none of the 14 MB seats is tight, but this poll suggests that:
- The NDP could lose Churchill--Keewatinok Aski to the Liberals (Grits lead by 13% over the NDP among First Nations), and Elmwood--Transcona could stay Conservative. That would leave the NDP with only Winnipeg Centre.
- The Tories could lose Charleswood--St. James--Assiniboia--Headingley to the Liberals.

So in MB, the likely seat ranges are:
CON: 6-8
LIB: 4-6
NDP: 1-3

I won't change the model until there is corroboration that the Liberals are indeed doing better in MB (and the NDP worse) than implied by aggregate MB/SK numbers. While August polls by EKOS and Mainstreet also suggested so, the September EKOS polls did not. This is a plausible hypothesis due to the unpopularity of the NDP provincial government in MB.

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