Saturday, September 26, 2015

Nanos: Still a Three-Way Race

Today's Nanos is out, and as might have been expected, yesterday's relatively bad Conservative number and good Liberal and NDP numbers were tempered. There were no dramatic changes.

Due to the avalanche of recent polls, this Nanos release only receives a weight of about 1/9. Furthermore, just 1/3 of it is new, so really, only about 4% of the projection is based on new data. As you might expect under these circumstances, the seat count (including the breakdown by province) is unchanged:

CON - 137 (32.8%, +0.1%)
NDP - 108 (27.7%, -0.2%)
LIB - 91 (29.1%)
GRN - 1 (5.4%, -0.1%)
BQ - 1 (4.0%, +0.1%)

Note that this projection, like all future ones, is based on a new version of the model that incorporates riding polls and regional breakdowns. The exact changes are described in this post. This explains the sudden shift in NS, where the Liberals jumped to 9 seats out of 11, but as observed here, with current numbers, the net national effect of the update is negligible.

Without the turnout adjustment (but still with the updated model), it's:

CON - 126 (31.1%)
NDP - 110 (28.5%)
LIB - 99 (29.9%)
BQ - 2 (3.8%)
GRN - 1 (5.8%)

You might wonder why the turnout adjustment often makes the Bloc's seat count lower, but its vote share higher. That's because the adjustment reduces the Bloc's share of the Québec vote, but also takes into account the fact that, in the past, turnout has tended to be higher in Québec than in the rest of Canada.

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