Sunday, September 13, 2015

Innovative: Three-Way Race Nationally, Liberals Lead in Ontario

After teasing us for a few days, Innovative has finally released the regional breakdown of its most recent poll for the Hill Times. It was conducted from 9/4-10, which is the time period where Nanos had the Liberals very high in ON, but where Ipsos, EKOS and Forum disagreed. So perhaps Nanos wasn't an outlier after all - most likely, the truth was somewhere in between, and the Grits had a small lead in ON.

The new projection gives:

CON - 129, -1 (31.1%, -0.2%)
NDP - 116, +1 (31.3%, -0.2%)
LIB - 92 (28.8%, +0.1%)
GRN - 1 (4.3%, +0.2%)
BQ - 0 (3.5%, +0.1%)

The good Liberal number in ON (and AB, where the Liberals now have one projected seat, Edmonton Centre, for the first time) did not translate into a very good number nationally: they are lower than usual in the Atlantic and BC. The NDP is lower than usual in Québec, while the Tories are lower than usual in ON and the Prairies.

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