Friday, September 11, 2015

EKOS: Tories Lead

The weekly EKOS is out. It's the third poll published today, and we have a third different party leading! In fact, each of the three main parties has one first place, one second place and one third place. The excitement continues!

The updated projection gives (Update: I discovered a small mistake in the weight assigned to the EKOS poll. The correction moved an NDP and a Liberal seat to the Conservatives, and changed national vote shares by 0.1% either way.):

CON - 128, +3 (31.0%, +0.7%)
NDP - 116, -3 (31.4%, -0.6%)
LIB - 93 (28.6%, -0.6%)
GRN - 1 (4.3%, +0.3%)
BQ - 0 (3.7%, +0.3%)

Without the turnout adjustment, the NDP would lead the seat count, and the Tories' vote share would be (very marginally) third essentially tied with the Grits':

NDP - 121 (32.1%)
CON - 118 (29.4%)
LIB - 98 (29.3%)
GRN - 1 (4.5%)
BQ - 0 (3.6%)

The weekly roundup is still to come!

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